[Mb-civic] An article for you from Michael Butler.

Wed Mar 29 10:16:18 PST 2006

- AN ARTICLE FOR YOU, FROM ECONOMIST.COM -

Dear civic,

Michael Butler (michael at intrafi.com) wants you to see this article on Economist.com.

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US IMMIGRATION
Mar 29th 2006  

America is in the midst of a great debate about immigration. The House
of Representatives has passed a punitive bill that would make living in
the country illegally a federal felony, while a Senate committee has
approved a softer version that would grant immigrants citizenship.
George Bush is roughly in the middle on an issue that divides his party

ASK policymakers or journalists what the most important foreign-policy
issues facing the United States are, and you hear the predictable
answers of Iraq, terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the like. Ask
ordinary Americans, however, and a concern that crops up again and
again is immigration. This week saw action in the Senate on tackling
this issue, which threatens to divide the ruling Republican Party.

Many Americans, especially in the states close to Mexico, but
increasingly in heartland states further north, worry that the country
is drowning in a tide of foreigners. They fret that illegal immigrants
drive down wages, take jobs from Americans, bring crime and enjoy
welfare services. Even Paul Krugman, an economist and reliably
left-wing columnist for the NEW YORK TIMES, worried about immigration's
economic effects in his article this week. In the past several months,
rising fears about immigration have put pressure on Congress, and on
George Bush, to respond.

The scope of the problem is large--there are 11m or more illegal
immigrants in the United States. Mr Bush, a former governor of Texas,
spoke early in his first term, including with Mexico's president,
Vicente Fox, about regularising the status of illegal workers, the
biggest share of whom are Mexican. On this subject he has shown little
of the penchant for cowboy justice he is often accused of having. In
this year's state-of-the-union speech, he argued that immigrants help
America's economy, and said "we must have a rational, humane
guest-worker programme that rejects amnesty, allows temporary jobs for
people who seek them legally, and reduces smuggling and crime at the
border." But to the Republican base, any guest-worker programme smacks
of amnesty, regardless of what the president says. 

The month before that speech, the House of Representatives, the more
populist of the two chambers of Congress, passed a highly punitive
anti-immigrant bill. It would make living in the United States
illegally a federal felony, rather than a civil offence as it is now.
It would also punish those who protect or hide illegal immigrants, and
extend a border wall begun in California along much of America's
southern boundary. And, counter to the president's wish, it has no
guest-worker provision. This signals that the embattled Mr Bush (who
replaced his chief of staff on Tuesday in what might presage a bigger
White House shake-up) can no longer command the Republican-controlled
House, especially in a mid-term election year. The bill, opposed by
most Democrats, passed with overwhelming Republican support.

But while it might have conservative grass-roots support, the bill's
harsh tone drew criticism. This has come not only from the usual
pro-immigrant groups. A gathering of religious leaders spoke out
against the legislation in a rally on Capitol Hill on Monday, playing
on Moses's plea to Pharaoh by saying "Let our people stay." Earlier
this month, the Roman Catholic cardinal of Los Angeles said that he
would urge his priests and lay Catholics to ignore a ban on aiding
illegal immigrants. And last weekend in Los Angeles, an estimated half
a million people marched against harsh immigration laws, the biggest
protest in the city's history.

The backlash against the House bill may have pushed the Senate in a
different direction this week. On Monday, the upper chamber's judiciary
committee passed a bill which, like the House version, would boost the
number of border guards and make deporting illegal aliens easier. But
the Senate bill omits some of the House's harshest provisions, such as
making living in America illegally a felony and criminalising the
aiding of illegal immigrants. It also envisions legalising the status
of some of those millions currently in the shadows. They must stay for
six years, remaining legally employed, to get a green card. After that,
if they pay back taxes and any fines and learn English, they can become
citizens in five more years. Also in the Senate bill was a provision
for a temporary guest-worker programme. 

The bill split the committee's Republicans--four of ten supported it,
along with all of the Democrats. The measure faces a harder time before
the full chamber. Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader, who harbours
presidential ambitions, may keep it from being brought to a vote,
preferring instead to promote a tougher bill of his own. And any Senate
bill must be reconciled with the House version.

Mr Bush is somewhere in the middle, wanting the guest-worker provision
that the House excludes, but reluctant to hand Democrats a victory by
going with a Senate version that many Republicans will hate. David
Frum, famous for coining the phrase "axis of evil" for Mr Bush, wrote
on Tuesday that immigration could be "strike three" for the president,
who has already annoyed his supporters by nominating Harriet Miers to
the Supreme Court and approving the takeover of American ports by a
Dubai company.

The problem isn't just a political pickle for Mr Bush. Immigration is
an emotive issue for Americans, but it is economically far more
important to its neighbours. Mexico receives more in remittances from
emigrants than any other country in the world except China and India.
Workers abroad sent home $13.3 billion in 2003, equivalent to 140% of
foreign direct investment in Mexico that year. Globally, the World Bank
estimates that official remittances amounted to $167 billion in 2005,
with perhaps 50% more than that total going unrecorded. The bank
focused its 2006 report, "Global Economic Prospects", on migration and
remittances, saying that while the effect of remittances on overall
growth is unclear, they help to reduce severe poverty, improving
investment in education and health.

Meanwhile, rejection of the European Union's draft constitution last
summer, riots by disaffected French youths later in the year and the
row over the Danish cartoons of Muhammad highlight that America is not
alone in its queasiness about immigration. Mr Bush pleaded this week
for the debate to be conducted in a "civil and dignified way". That,
alas, could be wishful thinking.

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5677464&fsrc=nwl

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