[Mb-civic] Making Russia a better neighbor - Mark Brzezinski - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  Making Russia a better neighbor

By Mark Brzezinski  |  March 8, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

LAST SUMMER, the Council of Europe issued a report urging Russia to 
cease treating ''neighboring and other countries in the region as zones 
of special influence." The report urges Russia to ''constructively 
contribute to resolution of open issues and cease with activities . . . 
which undermine the countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity."

A key message from President Bush to President Vladimir Putin should be 
that Russia's own integration into the world, a highly desirable 
objective, is jeopardized if at the same time the Kremlin has a policy 
of undercutting democratic development along its borders.

It's unlikely that there's a Kremlin master plan guiding Russia's 
actions toward her neighbors. Instead, Russia's actions are driven 
variably by ambition and nostalgia, confusion or misinterpretation, 
irritation or resentment.

And Russia's policy toward the former Soviet republics varies -- it's 
manifested in different ways and it produces different results. The 
Baltic States today are confident of their independence and sovereignty, 
but they remain afraid of Russia. Baltic leaders and Ukraine claim that 
Russia uses energy to assert leverage, by having Russian concerns 
acquire key elements of their energy sectors.

Ukraine and Belarus are themselves contrasts between striving for 
independence and extreme dependency. Ukrainian President Viktor 
Yuschenko has been clear about the goal of Ukraine's membership in the 
European Union. But he realizes the vital importance of not estranging 
Russia and has taken steps to develop dialogue with the Kremlin, even 
after Russia shut off gas supplies on Jan. 1. By contrast, Belarus 
remains a dependency where democracy demonstrations in the lead-up to 
the March 19 presidential election have been brutally crushed.

In the Caucasus and Moldova, Russia has tried to readjust the 
orientation of her neighbors, with little success. In 2002, Russia told 
Georgia to end its political and security relationship with NATO, and 
urged Georgia to accept Russian bases for the long-term. In Central 
Asia, dictators who previously resisted closer cooperation with Moscow 
have been encouraged by the Kremlin's urging to be heavy-handed with any 
signs of religious revival. Only Russia and China endorsed the 
Uzbekistan government's killing of hundreds of demonstrators in Andijon 
last summer.

There are signs that Russia is adjusting to new realities. In Georgia, 
Russia accommodated itself to Georgian central control over Ajaria and 
helped with the removal from Georgia of separatist leader Aslan 
Abashidze. In 2005, Russian and Georgian authorities agreed to troop 
withdrawal with a timetable and benchmarks, and ended their demand for 
financial compensation. But there are potential loopholes through 
follow-on pacts, and Russian troops and arsenals in Georgia may be 
redeployed to Armenia -- alarming Azerbaijan.

It's in Russia's interest, and in America's, for there to be greater 
trust and cooperation between Russia and her neighbors. The United 
States should strive to get Russia to understand that it is not pursuing 
a policy to transform the region into a zone of American control through 
''color revolutions." Instead, what's been happening there is part of a 
process of what's been happening in Europe for more than 50 years.

At the same time, countries in Russia's neighborhood need reassurance 
that the United States is committed to their independence, integrity, 
and stability. The lack of Western reaction to Russian meddling made 
some new democracies worry that their sovereignty is entirely 
subordinate to other key US interests with Russia.

In the near-term, the upcoming Belarus presidential election provides an 
important test. Today Belarus is one of the most repressive former 
Soviet republics. Last week, police beat and detained Alexander Kozulin, 
an opposition presidential candidate. A new law pushed through 
Parliament last year makes organizing a public protest -- or making 
statements that discredit the state -- punishable by three to five years 
in prison.

Symbolizing solidarity with the opposition, Bush met recently with the 
widows of two Belarusan leaders who were murdered by Alexander 
Lukashenko's government. But as Western governments develop a strategy 
in the event that international monitors report electoral fraud on March 
19, it must be remembered that Lukashenko's major financial and 
political sponsor is Putin.

In the long term, the West might consider a more dynamic vision of its 
relationship with a democratic Russia. As the Russia task force of the 
Council on Foreign Relations recommends: ''Western leaders should also 
diversify their political contacts within Russia. It's not enough to 
meet with representatives of 'civil society.' Open and routine contact 
with opposition political figures and organizations carry a more potent 
message." Doing so would give credibility and consistency to Bush's 
freedom agenda.

Mark Brzezinski, a Washington attorney, was director of Russian and 
Eurasian affairs on the National Security Council in the Clinton 
administration.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/03/08/making_russia_a_better_neighbor/
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