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Sun Mar 5 19:49:41 PST 2006

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WHO'S ISOLATING WHOM? 
Feb 23rd 2006  

Despite their fear of Iran and of Islamist movements at home, most Arab
regimes seem loth to co-operate wholeheartedly with America in the
region

YOU can't have it both ways, is what America's secretary of state,
Condoleezza Rice, is telling Arab audiences during a tour of friendly
capitals to rally sagging support for American policy in the Middle
East. You can't preach violence and expect international aid, she says
of Hamas, the Islamist party that recently swept Palestinian elections.
No one will respect you if you signal reform but act repressively, she
advises Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak. You can't say in private that
you fear Iran going nuclear but do nothing to stop it happening, she
will tell Gulf leaders.

Yet Ms Rice is hearing much the same refrain in response. America
cannot preach democracy in Palestine, then chastise the winners, just
as it cannot demand concessions from Hamas without Israel budging, too.
It cannot bully dictatorial allies to reform, then always expect their
support. And America cannot single out Iran on the nuclear issue, while
ignoring Israel's nearby arsenal. It's like Dick Cheney hunting quail
but shooting his friend instead, joked a Saudi columnist.

Stark as they are, differences between America and allied Arab
governments, across the range of issues on Ms Rice's agenda, mask a
degree of convergence. Egypt, for example, says it agrees that Hamas
should meet such conditions as accepting previous Palestinian peace
commitments, recognising Israel's right to exist and renouncing resort
to violence. Egypt's government, stunned by the strength of the Muslim
Brotherhood in recent national elections, dearly wishes to thwart the
political advance of closely related Islamist groups such as Hamas. 

What Egyptian officials fear is that too much pressure, too soon, could
drive Hamas into further extremism. Instead of making threats, say the
Egyptians, outsiders should bolster Palestinian institutions that are
not run by Hamas, such as the presidency of Mahmoud Abbas, and give
Hamas itself time to sort out a more practical, less ideology-bound
position. "I'm sure Hamas will develop, will evolve," Egypt's foreign
minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, said at a joint conference with Ms Rice,
"We should not prejudge the issue."

As for internal reform, the signs are that it is America that is muting
its demands. Last time Ms Rice was in Cairo, in June, she appealed for
Egypt to lead the region in democratisation. Since then, Egypt has held
presidential and parliamentary elections, but both were marred by
massive fiddling. In recent weeks, Egypt has jailed a candidate who
challenged Mr Mubarak for the presidency, summarily postponed local
elections due in April, mounted pressure on judges who protested
against vote-rigging under the country's notorious emergency laws.
During the elections some 1,500 Muslim Brothers were arrested; most
were set free quite soon, but a score or so remain behind bars. 

The Bush administration has responded by suspending talks on a
bilateral free-trade agreement. Yet in Cairo Ms Rice contented herself
with expressing disappointment at "setbacks" to reform, which she said
fell within a context of continuing progress and friendly dialogue.
Despite signs that America's western allies are inching towards talks
with the Brothers, the Bush team remains wary of offending Mr Mubarak's
regime by courting the rising party, which has yet to be made legal.
The underlying signal, it seems, is that the Bush administration deems
the regional situation too precarious, in the short run, for the kind
of hasty experimentation that might weaken occasionally useful friends
such as Mr Mubarak. 

On the issue of Iranian nuclear power, the two sides appear to have
agreed to disagree. Arab countries will not actively support Iran, a
country that all regional governments, bar Iranian-allied Syria, regard
as meddlesome and dangerous. Most will probably go along with
multilateral actions, through the UN or its agencies, that seek to curb
Iran's ambitions. Yet even Saudi Arabia, a country that has skirmished
militarily with Iran in the past and sees itself as a Sunni rival to
Shia Iran's pretensions of Islamic leadership, says bluntly it will not
openly challenge Iran.

Yet while most Arab governments may achieve fudges on such issues with
the Bush administration, the public mood across the region continues to
head towards polarisation. America's unpopularity seems only to grow as
Iraq remains chaotic, and now the cartoon controversy has tainted the
West's relatively "good cop", Europe, with a similar perceived
animosity towards Arabs and Muslims. Bolstered by its electoral
performance and sensing a surge of pan-Islamic feeling, the Muslim
Brotherhood has laid down a challenge by announcing a campaign to
secure donations from Muslims around the world to replace western aid
to Palestinians. 

That call was echoed in Iran, where Hamas's most telegenic leader,
Khaled Mishal, condemned financial "blackmail" this week, declaring
that funds from Arab and Muslim countries would make western aid
redundant. Iran's president chipped in, suggesting helpfully that
"Since the divine treasures are infinite, you should not worry about
financial issues."

So far, no significant substitute cash has made its way to Hamas. But
should such cash start to flow, Arab governments would find it hard to
stand in the way. Obviously, an even starker Muslim-western division
over the eternally-divisive Palestinian issue could muck up other parts
of America's regional agenda. This could, if not handled with care,
make Mr Bush's administration look more isolated than Iran and its
fellow rejectionists. 

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5555841

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