[Mb-civic] Spinning the State of the Union - Robert Kuttner - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

  Spinning the State of the Union

By Robert Kuttner  |  January 28, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

HOW DO YOU give an upbeat State of the Union address when your major 
foreign policy, Iraq, is a quagmire; your signature domestic program, 
Medicare drugs, is a bomb; and nearly two thirds of Americans, according 
to the latest Gallup Poll, think the country is worse off than five 
years ago?

Here are a few things to watch for in President Bush's first big 
election-year speech Tuesday:

Mission Accomplished? On Iraq, look for rhetoric of steady resolve, 
coupled with promises to limit American exposure. Bush could offer a 
partial reduction of US combat troops during 2006 (in time for the 
mid-term election) -- but without any realistic prospect of a stable 
Iraqi government to fill the vacuum. One idea: a ''garrison strategy" of 
keeping most US forces safely inside bases. This might cut American 
combat losses, but cede the countryside to guerrilla fighters and anarchy.

The Boy Who Cried Nukes. On Iran, watch for stern saber-rattling without 
a realistic plan to contain Iran's alarming nuclear ambitions. As former 
senior national security official Flynt Leverett wrote in a brilliant 
New York Times piece last week, it's clear that Bush targeted the wrong 
member of the ''axis of evil" (Iraq) and the wrong strategy to contain 
it. In 2002-03, the Iranians, then under more moderate leadership, 
wanted to constructively engage with the United States to resolve 
differences. Bush blew them off and focused obsessively on Iraq, which 
turned out not to have nuclear capabilities. The Iranians, who really do 
have the ability to build nukes, then elected a truly dangerous radical 
who is expanding his nation's nuclear program. Having bogged down in 
Iraq, Bush has neither the forces nor the strategy to deal with a real 
menace partly of his own making in Iran.

Last Refuge of a Scoundrel. Bush will demand that Congress extend the 
so-called USA Patriot Act, even though he insists that he doesn't need 
it in order to spy on Americans and conduct searches without warrants. 
Which is it, Mr. President? Bad law, or bad lawlessness?

Kinder, Gentler, More Deceptive. Expect purely symbolic election-year 
feints reverting to the rhetoric of the uniter-Bush of 2000, coupled 
with coded boasting to the Republican base, say, on abortion and the 
Supreme Court.

Hazardous to Your Health. Very likely: more bad policy ideas that are 
mainly subsidies to special interests. One really awful proposal likely 
to be touted is Medical Savings Accounts. With more people losing decent 
employer-provided insurance, Bush would cut people loose and offer tax 
incentives to put money into special savings accounts to pay for 
''high-deductible" individual policies. These are highly lucrative for 
the insurance industry, onerous for moderate-income families and people 
with expensive medical conditions, and the least cost-effective way to 
provide insurance. If you like the Bush drug plan, you'll love this.

Bragging Rights on Jobs? Bush will emphasize the number of jobs that 
have been created -- about 2 million in five years (compared with 2 
million a year in the 1990s.) He will not emphasize the fact that the 
median worker has had no net income growth. Real median income fell 1.3 
percent last year,

Aliens at our Gates. Having had five years to deal with rising levels of 
illegal immigration, Bush will flag this as a newly discovered menace. 
However, he is whipsawed between heartland Republicans who want much 
tougher policies including a border wall, better ID, and penalties for 
employers of illegals -- and a corporate community that just loves 
low-wage, low-benefit, low-rights ''guest-workers."

Lots More Red Ink. Many of Bush's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans 
expire in 2010. The latest Congressional Budget Office report projects 
that if Bush's tax cuts are permitted to expire, the budget will return 
to surplus but if they are extended the deficit will stay in excess of 
$340 billion a year. Bush wants to make the tax cuts permanent and add 
new ones. One high priority for the right: complete elimination of the 
estate tax, which already has been cut to the point where less than 1 
percent of estates pay any tax. Cost to the Treasury of total 
elimination: $745 billion over a decade. This is enough money to restore 
all cuts in federal aid to education and to extend Head-Start to all 
families who qualify.

Based on his record of the past five years, Bush has a pretty weak hand 
to play. Thanks to a brilliant team of speechwriters and spinmeisters, 
he is likely to play it well. But the routine is wearing thin.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/01/28/spinning_the_state_of_the_union/
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