[Mb-civic] In stunning upset, Hamas seen as victor - Boston Globe

[William Swiggard]

  In stunning upset, Hamas seen as victor


    Militant group takes majority in council

By Anne Barnard  |  January 26, 2006  |  The Boston Globe

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip -- The militant group Hamas won a majority of the 
seats in the Palestinian elections, a stunning victory that threatens to 
derail the Middle East peace process.

Although the Palestinian election council delayed the release of 
preliminary results until later today, election officials this morning 
confirmed Hamas had won virtually all of the 66 seats up for grabs in 
electoral districts in the West Bank and Gaza.

Half the seats in yesterday's parliament vote were chosen on a national 
list and the other half by districts.

Hamas's top candidate, Ismail Haniyeh, said his group had won about 70 
total seats. Officials from the opposing Fatah party privately confirmed 
those results.

Such a showing would be enough to create a majority in the 132-seat 
legislative council, which would allow Hamas to form the next 
Palestinian government.

Hamas's win smashed the decades-long political monopoly of the ruling 
Fatah party. There was no immediate response from Israeli or US officials.

Nearly 78 percent of the 1.3 million eligible voters in the West Bank 
and Gaza Strip cast ballots, election officials said. Hamas's first 
national campaign galvanized voters, some to support its call for 
''change and reform," others to block its agenda of establishing Islamic 
rule and fighting Israel to the death.

The historic contest asked voters to weigh in on fundamental issues -- 
from Islam and corruption to peacemaking efforts -- and dealt Fatah a 
blow 14 months after the death of its founder and leader, Yasser Arafat. 
Hamas's strong showing could give Palestinian governance more street 
credibility but make it harder to disarm militant groups.

The 132-member Palestinian Legislative Council is the legislative branch 
of the Palestinian Authority, the governing body for the West Bank and 
Gaza Strip, which Israel captured in the 1967 war. Although the 
parliament will not replace authority president Mahmoud Abbas, a Fatah 
leader who was elected separately last year, it must approve Cabinet 
members and could set the tone for peacemaking efforts as well as for 
governance in Gaza, which is enjoying a degree of autonomy after Israeli 
troops pulled out last summer.

Celebratory gunfire could be heard last night across Gaza City. Earlier, 
voters pushed their way into polling stations through forests of flags 
held up by party loyalists in color-coded baseball caps -- yellow for 
Fatah, green for Hamas.

Fatah champions compromise with Israel but is widely viewed as stagnant 
and corrupt. Hamas has offered Palestinians their first coherent 
alternative to Fatah but is listed as a terrorist organization by the US 
government.

''It's time to change, for good," declared Luai Matta, 22, a university 
student who voted in Jabaliya, outside Gaza City. He said he voted for 
Hamas because he thought Fatah had negotiated away too many of 
Palestinians' territorial demands while failing to improve their lives.

''Time will tell," he added. ''In four years we will have another 
election and if Hamas hasn't performed well, they will lose."

The results contradicted numerous exit polls of voters. Those surveys 
showed Fatah winning the election, but not gaining enough seats to form 
a majority in the parliament.

The largest exit poll, which surveyed 18,000 voters, suggested Fatah won 
42 percent of the vote and Hamas 35 percent, with a margin of error of 4 
percentage points. It was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy 
and Survey Research, considered the most reliable tracker of Palestinian 
opinion.

Those figures reflect only the nationwide party-list voting that 
determines half the seats in parliament.

Another poll, of 4,000 voters by Bir Zeit University, showed Fatah with 
46.4 percent of the vote and Hamas with 39.5 percent. That would 
translate into 63 seats for Fatah and 58 seats for Hamas, with a 
one-seat margin of error, the pollsters said.

The percentage of seats is higher than the percentage of votes because 
smaller parties that fail to garner 2 percent will be disqualified.

No major violence was reported during the vote. Though frequent clashes 
among Fatah militants marred the campaign season, rival militias 
declared they would not disrupt the election.

About 17,000 local poll-watchers and hundreds of observers monitored the 
vote. The National Democracy Institute, a US-funded group that 
coordinated observers, including former president Jimmy Carter, said 
polling proceeded smoothly and by the book.

Hamas's surging popularity has highlighted the dilemma the United States 
faces across the Middle East as it promotes democracy: Voters from Iraq 
to Egypt are increasingly supporting parties that want to establish 
Islamic rule and deplore US support of Israel.

Unlike the Israeli government, the Bush administration did not ask Abbas 
to stop Hamas from running but said it would not meet with Hamas members 
of a future Palestinian government.

''We don't deal with Hamas. And under the current circumstances, I don't 
see that changing," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said 
yesterday before the results were revealed. He said US relations with 
the Palestinian Authority as a whole would depend on ''what kind of 
policies they pursue."

During the campaign, several Hamas leaders floated the possibility of 
talks with Israel and of what they called an interim agreement that 
would accept a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza only, rather 
than holding out for their usual demand to control what is now Israel. 
Other leaders issued fiery speeches to the party faithful in the 
campaign's final days vowing not to compromise.

Hamas leaders said during the campaign that even if party members join 
the Cabinet, they would not disarm their military wing, a key demand of 
the US-backed ''road map," a plan designed to restart peace 
negotiations. Hamas has unleashed dozens of suicide bombings against 
Israelis but has maintained an informal truce since February.

Abbas told reporters after voting in Ramallah he would pursue talks with 
Israel even if Hamas members secure Cabinet posts.

''We are partners with the Israelis. They don't have the right to choose 
their partner," he said. ''But if they are seeking a Palestinian 
partner, this partner exists."

A Hamas majority in the parliament would represent a political earthquake.

The possibility of a strong showing by Hamas has triggered impassioned 
international debate over whether the group's entry into the political 
system will force it to adopt more pragmatic policies or strengthen its 
hard-liners, who oppose negotiations with Israel and call for its 
destruction.

In Jabaliya, many voters were longtime Hamas supporters. They said they 
reject the compromises Fatah has proposed, such as accepting a future 
Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem instead of all of Jerusalem, or 
accepting compensation for some Palestinian refugees in lieu of their 
right to return to what is now Israel.

But many others said they had not previously supported Hamas and were 
lukewarm to its vision of a state ruled by Islamic law and unending 
conflict with Israel. Rather, they said, they were voting for Hamas to 
protest Fatah's flawed governance since the 1993 Oslo Accords gave the 
Palestinian Authority limited rule over the West Bank and Gaza.

One such voter was Samir Okasha, 47, who was observing the election on 
behalf of a Fatah candidate he supports, Izzedine Abu Aish. But Okasha 
said he also gave his vote to five Hamas members on the district ballot, 
on which voters could choose multiple candidates.

''In the last 10 years we achieved nothing, only some people got rich 
and the rest were pushed down to the ground," he said. ''The most 
important thing is to have a strong opposition. When there is only one 
ruling party, they will make decisions to serve their own interests."

At another polling station in Gaza City, Mohammed Ibrahim said he voted 
for Hamas even though he works for a television station run by the Fatah 
government. ''Not because I support Hamas but for the sake of change," 
he said. ''In the USA, we see that sometimes there are Democrats and 
sometimes there are Republicans. So let's try something different."

He brought his son, Abdullah, 12, to the polling station. ''I brought 
him to show him what democracy is," Ibrahim said.

In Nablus, a West Bank city increasingly dominated by Hamas, fruit 
peddlers in the central market proudly brandished fingers stained with 
ink at the ballot box to prevent double-voting.

''The Europeans said they will cut off aid to us if we vote for Hamas," 
said Hamas voter Ribhi al-Kahkn, 59, standing by a pile of bananas. ''We 
say, keep your money. Hamas has clean hands."

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/01/26/in_stunning_upset_hamas_seen_as_victor/
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