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Fri Jan 13 10:40:16 PST 2006

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MOVING TOWARDS A NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN
Jan 13th 2006  

The prospect of some form of sanctions against Iran is growing after
the Islamic country resumed work at its nuclear plants this week. A
crisis meeting between Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the
United States has been called in London for January 16th. President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he will not back down "one iota" as Iran waits
to be referred to the UN Security Council

INTERNATIONAL tension continues to rise after Iran's government decided
to break the seals at its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz this week,
provoking widespread criticism from friends and opponents alike. The
decision is likely to prove momentous. It marks an end to the Islamic
republic's two-year, voluntary suspension of nuclear research agreed
with European countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog. It also suggests that President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set on a showdown--rather than more
negotiation--with western countries over his country's nuclear
ambitions. 

The pressing question now is how the rest of the world handles Iran.
Several European countries have voiced alarm at Iran's decision to
restart nuclear work. France's president, Jacques Chirac, immediately
called the decision "a serious error". A spokesperson for the European
Union expressed extreme concern that Iran is violating an international
agreement not to pursue sensitive nuclear activities, notably the
enrichment of uranium. Even Russia, which is seen as an ally of Iran
and the country most likely to broker a compromise, said it was worried
by the move and called on Iran to stick to its international
commitments. 

On Thursday January 12th, the foreign ministers of Britain, Germany and
France (the so-called EU3) met in Berlin to consider what steps to
take. They and the United States want the matter of Iran's nuclear
efforts to be referred--perhaps by the board of the IAEA--to the
Security Council at the United Nations. Germany's foreign minister,
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said "talks with Iran have reached a dead
end". America's vice-president, Dick Cheney, had earlier told Fox News
that the Bush administration wants to see a resolution that could be
enforced by sanctions. Britain's Tony Blair told Parliament that no
measures would be ruled out in considering how to handle Iran. 

On Friday Mr Ahmadinejad responded that "Iran is not frightened by the
threat of any country and it will continue the path of production of
nuclear energy", according to state radio. He added that the
"government will not back down one iota". The same day Iran's foreign
minister, Manuchehr Mottaki, said the country would "be obliged to end
all...voluntary measures" if referred to the Security Council,
indicating that the IAEA would be stopped from conducting short-notice
inspections of Iran's nuclear sites--an essential task if the programme
is to be supervised by the UN body.

If the Security Council does consider a resolution against Iran, much
will depend on the positions of Russia and China. Some believe Russia
now supports limited sanctions. China might be willing to abstain
rather than be isolated after making clear it opposes the spread of
nuclear weapons, though on Friday its ambassador to the UN sounded wary
of complicating the situation by referring Iran to the council.

Presumably to hammer out an agreed response, a crisis meeting has been
called for Monday in London between the EU3, the United States, Russia
and China. Nor are diplomats the only ones concerned: the price of
crude ticked up to a three-month high this week largely because of the
nuclear impasse with Iran, which is one of the world's biggest oil
producers.

Few governments in Europe and America doubt that Iran is using its
civilian atomic-energy efforts as a cover for a nuclear weapons
programme. Western suspicions are based on Iran's record of hiding
nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years until discovered in
2003. Now Tehran has spurned a Russian proposal to enrich uranium on
its behalf which would have provided material to be used for civilian,
but not military, ends. The evidence is piling up that Mr Ahmadinejad
is unwilling to compromise.

Last week Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian official in charge of
nuclear issues, said his country had a non-negotiable right to resume
research. Mr Ahmadinejad added that "the Iranian nation and government
will defend the right to nuclear research and technology and will go
forward prudently." But Iranian delegates then failed to show up to a
meeting with the IAEA in Vienna, where they were to explain the purpose
of the renewed work. The IAEA's boss, Mohamed ElBaradei, is said to be
exasperated by Iran's behaviour and its "regrettable" decision to
restart research. 

The likelihood of diplomatic confrontation has been growing for months.
Iran resumed production of uranium gas in August, to European and
American disapproval. Then it announced plans to enrich the gas in
centrifuge machines at the plant in Natanz. Efforts by Russian
diplomats to broker a compromise have got nowhere. At the same time Mr
Ahmadinejad has been taking an ever tougher public stance. He has
replaced many moderate diplomats with hardliners. This month he told a
gathering of lawmakers that any policy of detente is not in Iran's best
interests. He fulminates against Israel with almost clockwork
regularity. Last week he willed an early death for Israel's ill prime
minister, Ariel Sharon. Previously he called Israel a "tumour" and
suggested it should be wiped "off the map" or else reconstituted in
Europe. In December he called the Holocaust a "myth", stirring up wide
international criticism.

Information seems to be accruing that the Islamic country is up to no
good. A British newspaper, the GUARDIAN, last week said European
intelligence agencies had produced a lengthy report that fingered Iran
(and other would-be nuclear powers) for running a network of traders,
phoney companies, state institutions and diplomatic missions to procure
the means to develop chemical, biological, nuclear and conventional
weapons. Iran is said to be especially active in Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Russia as it tries to develop "very ambitious" missile programmes.
The European spies suggested that 16 Russian firms and academic
institutes are helping--and profiting from--the Iranian military effort.

Much seems now to depend on the belligerent Mr Ahmadinejad, who feels
he has a mission to reject the West's "frail civilisation" and instead,
with Iran's bumper oil revenues, build a "model Islamic" country.
Though he does not enjoy unanimous support at home, he is backed by the
hardline Revolutionary Guard--the same institution that America and its
allies suspect of using a civilian nuclear programme as cover to build
a bomb. The Guard wields much influence on Iran's behalf in next-door
Iraq, and could stir up more trouble there for America if the
superpower were ever to threaten to clobber Iran's nuclear facilities.

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