[Mb-civic] Terrorist Attacks Rose Sharply in 2005, State Dept. Says - Washington Post

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Terrorist Attacks Rose Sharply in 2005, State Dept. Says

By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, April 29, 2006; A01

The number of terrorist attacks worldwide increased nearly fourfold in 2005
to 11,111, with strikes in Iraq accounting for 30 percent of the total,
according to statistics released by U.S. counterterrorism officials
yesterday.

Although only half of the incidents resulted in loss of life, more than
14,600 noncombatants were killed, a majority of them in Iraq alone and 80
percent in the Near East and South Asia. American nonmilitary deaths
totaled 56.

The figures were compiled by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)
and released with the annual State Department Country Reports on Terrorism.

Unlike those of previous years, the 2005 report included a "strategic
assessment" of the war on terrorism, which concluded that while "al-Qaeda
is not the organization it was four years ago," the group was "adaptive and
resilient . . . and important members of its core cadre remained alive and
were adjusting to our operational tempo."

"Overall," the 262-page report said, "we are still in the first phase of a
potentially long war. The enemy's proven ability to adapt means we will
probably go through several more cycles of action/reaction before the war's
outcome is no longer in doubt. It is likely that we will face a resilient
enemy for years to come."

The assessment was somewhat more grim than those offered by the White House
in recent months. Although the struggle against global terrorism is far
from over, President Bush said in a February speech at the Naval Academy
that "we're winning."

The NCTC defines terrorist attacks as "premeditated, politically motivated
violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets" but acknowledges that
such terms are "open to interpretation." "Combatants" are defined as
"military, paramilitary, militia, and police under military command and
control in specific areas or regions where war zones or war-like settings
exist."

Diplomats and other nonmilitary government "assets," as well as civilians,
are considered noncombatants for counting purposes.

On the positive side, the report noted that al-Qaeda's leadership is
"scattered and on the run," with its finances and logistics disrupted and
its organizational networks increasingly decentralized.

But while Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, were said to
be "frustrated" by their lack of direct control over terrorist operations,
the fact that they remained at large allowed them to "symbolize resistance
to the international community, demonstrate they retain the capability to
influence events, and inspire actual and potential terrorists."

The apparent inability of bin Laden and Zawahiri to orchestrate large-scale
attacks -- and al-Qaeda's increasing "emphasis on ideological and
propaganda activity" -- was one of several emerging trends, said Henry A.
Crumpton, State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, in a briefing.

The number of "high fatality incidents" around the world, excluding Iraq,
was among the few statistics in the report that decreased from 2004 -- when
attacks in places such as Russia and Madrid killed hundreds -- to 2005.

But in Iraq, such incidents -- defined as those resulting in 10 or more
deaths -- increased from 65 to 150, with a doubling of fatalities. Overall,
there were 3,500 attacks in Iraq, up from 866 in 2004.

Most fatalities were attributed to armed attacks and bombings. None
occurred in the United States or used weapons of mass destruction, and "no
attacks approached the sophistication of those on 9/11," the NCTC
statistical analysis concluded.

But "2005 saw many attacks perpetrated by relatively unskilled operatives."
The State Department report noted an increase in "small, autonomous cells
and individuals [that] drew on advanced technologies and the tools of
globalization such as the Internet, satellite communications, and
international commerce."

These "micro-actors," the report said, "were extremely difficult to detect
or counter." Increasing use of the Internet among individuals and small
groups disposed to terrorist acts, such as last July's suicide bombings in
the London transport system, no longer requires central leadership or
on-the-ground training.

In addition to those trends, NCTC Deputy Director Russ Travers offered
three reasons for the significant statistical increases in both attacks and
fatalities. The 2004 report was initially assembled under a narrower
definition of terrorism, confined to attacks involving citizens or
territory of more than one country. In July, NCTC released revised 2004
figures compiled under the new definition, Travers said, but the hurried
nature of the work and a lack of analysts at the then-fledgling NCTC meant
that "we missed thousands of incidents."

"The bottom line is that 2005 is a far more comprehensive data set,"
Travers said, "and limits the comparability of 2004 and 2005." Travers also
pointed out that the overall figure of 11,111 incidents includes acts by
designated terrorist groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia, or FARC, and the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda.

As in previous years, the report cited Iran as "the most active state
sponsor of terrorism." This activity included the direct involvement of its
intelligence service and Islamic Revolutionary Guard in planning and
supporting terrorist acts, and Iran's backing and encouragement of
terrorist groups operating in Syria and Lebanon and against Israel. In
addition, the Revolutionary Guard was said to be "increasingly involved in
supplying lethal assistance" to violent Shiite militias in Iraq.

There were no changes to last year's list of known terrorist groups or to
the list of six countries considered "state sponsors" of terrorism: Iran,
North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Cuba and Libya.

Libya, which has renounced weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, had
made progress, Crumpton said, and "we're at the point right now of
continuing our discussions, verifying some issues and moving forward." Only
Iraq, which was removed last year, has ever been taken off the list.

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