[Mb-civic] Rove's New Mission: Survival - E. J. Dionne - Washington Post Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

Rove's New Mission: Survival
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By E. J. Dionne Jr.
The Washington Post
Friday, April 21, 2006; A23

Here's the real meaning of the White House shake-up and the redefinition 
of Karl Rove's role in the Bush presidency: The administration's one and 
only domestic priority in 2006 is hanging on to control of Congress.

That, in turn, means that all the spin about Rove's power being 
diminished is simply wrong. Yes, Rove is giving up some policy 
responsibilities to concentrate on politics, but guess what: The 
possibility of President Bush's winning enactment of any major new 
policy initiative this year is zero. Rove is simply moving to where all 
the action will, of necessity, be.

As one outside adviser to the administration said, the danger of a 
Democratic takeover of at least one house of Congress looms large and 
would carry huge penalties for Bush. The administration fears 
"investigations of everything" by congressional committees, this adviser 
said, and the "possibility of a forced withdrawal from Iraq" through 
legislative action.

"I don't think they see much chance of accomplishing anything this 
year," said this Republican strategist, who preferred not to be quoted 
by name. "The bulk of their agenda, let's say, has been put on hold."

Rove never stopped being political, even when he had formal 
responsibility for policy. What's intriguing about the shift in the 
direction of Rove's energies is that it marks a turn from the high 
politics of a partisan realignment driven by ideas and policies to the 
more mundane politics of eking out votes, seat by seat and state by 
state. Most of Rove's grander dreams have died as the president's poll 
numbers have come crashing down.

It's forgotten that the president's proposal to privatize part of Social 
Security was not primarily about creating solvency in the system, since 
the creation of private accounts would have aggravated deficits for a 
significant period. It was part of a larger effort to reorganize 
government and bring the New Deal era to a definitive close.

The president's "ownership society" was a political project designed to 
increase Americans' reliance on private markets for their retirements 
and, over the longer run, on their own resources for health coverage. 
The idea was that broadening the "investor class," a totemic phrase 
among tax-cutting conservatives, would change the economic basis of 
politics -- and create more Republicans.

The collapse of the Social Security initiative was thus more than a 
policy failure. It was a decisive political defeat that left Bush and 
Rove with no fallback ideas around which to organize domestic policy. 
And just as the growing unpopularity of the war in Vietnam after 1966 
forced Lyndon Johnson to abandon his Great Society programs -- partly 
because of large GOP gains in Congress during that year's midterm 
elections -- opposition to the Iraq war is undercutting Bush's effort to 
create a kind of Great Society-in-reverse.

The Democrats had such large congressional margins in 1966 that they 
could suffer major losses and still maintain at least nominal control of 
both houses. But Republican congressional margins are thin, particularly 
in the House, where a shift of 15 seats would make Democrat Nancy Pelosi 
the speaker.

And the possibility of a Democratic tide that might sweep in second- or 
third-tier challengers is no longer mere fantasy talk among liberals at 
cocktail parties. It is a genuine Republican fear. According to figures 
from state polls published this week by SurveyUSA, Bush has an approval 
rating above 50 percent in just four states -- Utah, Idaho, Wyoming and 
Nebraska. His disapproval rating is 60 percent or higher in such key 
battlegrounds as Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Colorado, New 
Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

The Virginia numbers from a survey earlier this month -- 37 percent 
approval for Bush, 60 percent disapproval -- are particularly 
intriguing. Democrats are beginning to think that Sen. George Allen, who 
is up for reelection this year and considering a run at the presidency 
in 2008, may be vulnerable. Democrats already see Republican seats in 
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Rhode Island and 
Arizona as reasonable targets. While a Democratic takeover of the Senate 
is still a long shot, it is no longer a preposterous idea.

Thus Rove's new electoral focus is an urgent administration priority. 
And given the unfavorable political terrain for the president, Rove's 
recipe this year, as in 2004, is likely to include a heavy dollop of 
attacks on the Democrats. Hold on for the new Swift Boaters, coming soon 
to your swing state. It's not the politics dreams are made of, but it 
often works.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/20/AR2006042001351.html
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