[Mb-civic] Anger at Bush May Hurt GOP At Polls - Washington Post

[William Swiggard]

Anger at Bush May Hurt GOP At Polls
Turnout Could Favor Democrats

By Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 17, 2006; A01

Intense and widespread opposition to President Bush is likely to be a 
sharp spur driving voters to the polls in this fall's midterm elections, 
according to strategists in both parties, a phenomenon that could give 
Democrats a turnout advantage over Republicans for the first time in 
recent years.

Polls have reflected voter discontent with Bush for many months, but as 
the election nears, operatives are paying special attention to one 
subset of the numbers. It is the wide disparity between the number of 
people who are passionate in their dislike of Bush vs. those who support 
him with equal fervor.

Lately, there have been a lot more of the former -- and even Republicans 
acknowledge that could spell trouble in closely contested congressional 
races.

"Angry voters turn out and vote their anger," said Glen Bolger, a 
pollster for several Republican congressional candidates. "Democrats 
will have an easier time of getting out their vote because of their 
intense disapproval of the president. That means we Republicans are 
going to have to bring our 'A' turnout game in November."

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed 47 percent of voters 
"strongly" disapprove of Bush's job performance, vs. 20 percent who said 
they "strongly approve."

In the recent past, this perennial truism of politics -- emotion equals 
turnout -- has worked more to the Republican advantage. Several weeks 
before the 2002 midterm elections, Bush had 42 percent of voters 
strongly approving of him, compared with 18 percent in strong 
opposition. Democrats were stunned on election night when Republicans 
defied historical patterns and made gains in the House and Senate. The 
president's party usually loses seats during the first midterm elections 
after he takes office.

The premise behind the Democrats' hopes this year is simple, though not 
easy to quantify: People impassioned by anger or other sentiments are 
more likely to vote -- even in bad weather and in relatively low-profile 
races -- than are those who are demoralized or less emotional.

"In a midterm election, motivation is the biggest factor," said Rep. 
Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), head of his party's House campaign efforts this year.

Whether anti-Bush sentiments portend a political tidal wave in November 
is much debated, but Democrats hope they are hearing early echoes of 
1974 and 1994. There was massive turnover of congressional seats in 
those midterm elections, as fired-up voters first punished Republicans 
for Watergate, and later turned on Democrats because of President Bill 
Clinton's failed health-care initiative and because of anger over House 
ethics abuses.

The intense opposition to Bush is larger than any faced by Clinton. For 
all the polarization the 42nd president inspired, Clinton's strong 
disapproval never got above 37 percent in Post-ABC polls during his 
presidency.

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said GOP House candidates have reason to 
worry. His surveys find that 82 percent of Americans who say they voted 
for Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 plan to vote for a Democrat for 
the House this year. But only 65 percent who voted for Bush say they 
will vote for a Republican House nominee, Garin said. The remaining 35 
percent say they are open to voting for a Democrat or staying home.

"We get a large chunk of Bush voters who are not motivated to go out and 
vote for Republicans this fall," Garin said. "That puts a lot of red 
districts into play."

Republican officials acknowledge Bush's problems but predict they will 
not translate into significant setbacks this fall. "I don't think that 
intensity is going to be a problem at all" in key House races, said Carl 
Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Both parties will spend heavily on those races, he said, "so every 
person who's going to vote will have seen TV ads, gotten phone calls, 
gotten mail." That will give them ample information to base their 
decision on the candidates, not on their feelings toward Bush, Forti 
said. He noted that polls continue to show that most Americans approve 
of their own House member even if they dislike Congress as a whole, and 
that bodes well for the party in power.

"They may be upset nationally," Forti said. "But clearly that does not 
mean they're not going to go vote for their congressman." House 
elections will turn mainly on local issues and nominees, he said.

The Post-ABC News poll found that 59 percent of registered voters 
approve of their own representative, a lower number than in past months. 
But only 35 percent approve of the way Congress is doing its job. Forty 
percent said they plan to vote for a Republican in this year's House 
elections, and 55 percent said they will vote for a Democrat.

Republicans will court voters such as Johanna Lee, an insurance 
customer-service representative from northeast Maryland, a state with 
sharply contested races for Senate and governor.

Lee, 62, describes herself as a conservative Democrat who regrets voting 
for Bush in 2000 and 2004. She opposes his willingness to grant 
guest-worker status to illegal immigrants, who she feels "should be 
taken out of our country." Lee initially supported the invasion of Iraq, 
but says now "we should come out of the war because we're not doing any 
good there."

Despite her discontent, Lee said she would consider voting for 
Republicans for Congress and governor this fall. "I don't vote party," 
she said. "I vote for the candidate."

Other voters are less charitable. Shirley Jackson of Woodbury, Minn., 
said she formerly considered herself an independent voter "and my 
husband used to be a staunch Republican. But now we're both Democrats."

The main reason, she said, is Bush's handling of the war. "My husband 
and I think he lied to us, and he won't admit he's lied to us," said 
Jackson, 69. She said she believes Bush launched the war to avenge 
Iraq's reported plan to assassinate his father.

Jackson is following the competitive race to replace retiring Sen. Mark 
Dayton (D), and she doesn't like Republican candidate Mark Kennedy. "I 
won't vote for him, I'm pretty sure," she said.

In Collierville, Tenn., school bus driver Charlotte Bruce is worried 
Bush will prove ruinous to GOP candidates this fall.

"He's making such fools out of Republicans that no matter what the 
Democrats present, that's the one that's going to get in," she said. 
"And that's frightening," because the country needs bipartisan balance, 
she said.

Bruce, 54, said she is a moderate Republican and has given money to the 
party, but now she is exasperated with Bush and his economic policies. 
She recounted a conversation with neighbors who support Bush because of 
"moral issues." "I said, 'While he's not killing babies, he's killing 
you' " with high gasoline prices, a soaring deficit and other problems, 
Bruce said. "He is going to bankrupt us all."

She said she will vote for Democrat Harold E. Ford Jr. in the contest to 
replace retiring Sen. Bill Frist (R). She called Ford, a five-term House 
member from nearby Memphis, "a wonderful gentleman."

Garin predicts that Bush's unpopularity will produce many voters like 
Bruce and Jackson in November. "The rule this year," he said, playing on 
an adage, "may be that all local politics is national."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/16/AR2006041600648.html
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