[Mb-civic] FW: Noah listened. Congress didn't. Scientific American
article 10/01 says it all
Michael Butler
michael at michaelbutler.com
Thu Sep 8 12:06:58 PDT 2005
------ Forwarded Message
From: "Toni De Marco" <globaltoni at frontpage.tv>
Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2005 14:39:02 -0700
To: "Michael Butler" <michael at michaelbutler.com>
Subject: Fw: Noah listened. Congrss didn't. Scientific American article
10/01 says it all
FW: Noah listened. Congrss didn't. Scientific American article 10/01 says it
allHi Michael --
After reading your current blog page, I thought you might be interested in
this article which was published long before the actual disaster:
Big hug, Toni
Toni De Marco
President, Global Dialog LLC and FrontPage TV, Inc.
1711 Franklin Street, Suite D
Santa Monica, CA 90404
Phone: 310-315-9888 Fax: 310 315-9885
email: GlobalToni at FrontPage.tv
FrontPage.tv
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ToniDeMarco.com
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Drowning New Orleans
A major hurricane could swamp New Orleans under 20 feet of water, killing
thousands. Human activities along the Mississippi River have dramatically
increased the risk, and now only massive reengineering of southeastern
Louisiana can save the city
By Mark Fischetti
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a.. Infographic: Sinking out of Sight
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b.. Infographic: Sinking out of Sight (page 2)
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c.. Infographic: A Worst-Case Scenario
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The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large,
windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big,
slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it
would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under 20 feet of water.
"As the water recedes," says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management
director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies."
New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level,
in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north
and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning
confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing
flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which
buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from
now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh--an area the size of
Manhattan--will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each
loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into
the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in
surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because
the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at
Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible
storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people
could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far.
A direct hit is inevitable. Large hurricanes come close every year. In 1965
Hurricane Betsy put parts of the city under eight feet of water. In 1992
monstrous Hurricane Andrew missed the city by only 100 miles. In 1998
Hurricane Georges veered east at the last moment but still caused billions
of dollars of damage. At fault are natural processes that have been
artificially accelerated by human tinkering--levying rivers, draining
wetlands, dredging channels and cutting canals through marshes. Ironically,
scientists and engineers say the only hope is more manipulation, although
they don't necessarily agree on which proposed projects to pursue. Without
intervention, experts at L.S.U. warn, the protective delta will be gone by
2090. The sunken city would sit directly on the sea--at best a troubled
Venice, at worst a modern-day Atlantis.
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As if the risk to human lives weren't enough, the potential drowning of New
Orleans has serious economic and environmental consequences as well.
Louisiana's coast produces one third of the country's seafood, one fifth of
its oil and one quarter of its natural gas. It harbors 40 percent of the
nation's coastal wetlands and provides wintering grounds for 70 percent of
its migratory waterfowl. Facilities on the Mississippi River from New
Orleans to Baton Rouge constitute the nation's largest port. And the delta
fuels a unique element of America's psyche; it is the wellspring of jazz and
blues, the source of everything Cajun and Creole, and the home of Mardi
Gras. Thus far, however, Washington has turned down appeals for substantial
aid.
Fixing the delta would serve as a valuable test case for the country and the
world. Coastal marshes are disappearing along the eastern seaboard, the
other Gulf Coast states, San Francisco Bay and the Columbia River estuary
for many of the same reasons besetting Louisiana. Parts of Houston are
sinking faster than New Orleans. Major deltas around the globe--from the
Orinoco in Venezuela, to the Nile in Egypt, to the Mekong in Vietnam--are in
the same delicate state today that the Mississippi Delta was in 100 to 200
years ago. Lessons from New Orleans could help establish guidelines for
safer development in these areas, and the state could export restoration
technology worldwide. In Europe, the Rhine, Rhône and Po deltas are losing
land. And if sea level rises substantially because of global warming in the
next 100 years or so, numerous low-lying coastal cities such as New York
would need to take protective measures similar to those proposed for
Louisiana.
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Seeing Is Believing
Shea Penland is among those best suited to explain the delta's blues. Now a
geologist at the University of New Orleans, he spent 16 years at L.S.U.;
does contract work for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which builds the
levees; sits on federal and state working groups implementing coastal
restoration projects; and consults for the oil and gas industry. His
greatest credential, however, is that he knows the local folk in every
little bayou town, clump of swamp and spit of marsh up and down the
disintegrating coast--the people who experience its degradation every day.
Penland, dressed in jeans and a polo shirt on a mid-May morning, is eager to
get me into his worn red Ford F150 pickup truck so we can explore what's
eating the 50 miles of wet landscape south of New Orleans. The Mississippi
River built the delta plain that forms southeastern Louisiana over centuries
by depositing vast quantities of sediment every year during spring floods.
Although the drying sands and silts would compress under their own weight
and sink some, the next flood would rebuild them. Since 1879, however, the
Corps of Engineers, at Congress's behest, has progressively lined the river
with levees to prevent floods from damaging towns and industry. The river is
now shackled from northern Louisiana to the gulf, cutting off the sediment
supply. As a result, the plain just subsides below the encroaching ocean. As
the wetlands vanish, so does New Orleans's protection from the sea. A
hurricane's storm surge can reach heights of more than 20 feet, but every
four miles of marsh can absorb enough water to knock it down by one foot.
The flat marsh right outside New Orleans is still a vibrant sponge, an ever
changing mix of shallow freshwater, green marsh grasses and cypress swamp
hung with Spanish moss. But as Penland and I reach the halfway point en
route to the gulf, the sponge becomes seriously torn and waterlogged.
Isolated roads on raised stone beds pass rusted trailer homes and former
brothels along now flooded bayous; stands of naked, dead trees; and browned
grasses and reaches of empty water.
Down in Port Fourchon, where the tattered marsh finally gives way to open
gulf, the subsidence and erosion are aggressive. The lone road exists only
to service a collection of desolate corrugated buildings where oil and
natural-gas pipelines converge from hundreds of offshore wellheads.
Countless platforms form a gloomy steel forest rising from the sea. To bring
in the goods, the fossil fuel companies have dredged hundreds of miles of
navigation channels and pipeline canals throughout the coastal and interior
marshes. Each cut removes land, and boat traffic and tides steadily erode
the banks. The average U.S. beach erodes about two feet a year, Penland
says, but Port Fourchon loses 40 to 50 feet a year--the fastest rate in the
country. The network of canals also gives saltwater easy access to interior
marshes, raising their salinity and killing the grasses and bottomwood
forests from the roots up. No vegetation is left to prevent wind and water
from wearing the marshes away. In a study funded by the oil and gas
industry, Penland documented that the industry has caused one third of the
delta's land loss.
Alligator Science
The Duet brothers know firsthand how various factors accelerate land loss
beyond natural subsidence. Toby and Danny, two of Penland's local pals along
our route, live on a 50-foot beige barge complex anchored in the middle of
15 square miles of broken marsh, some 20 miles northwest of Port Fourchon.
Their family leased the land from oil companies, for fishing and hunting, 16
years ago when it was merely wet. Now it lies under five to eight feet of
water. They filter rain for drinking water, process their own sewage, catch
the food they eat and make money hosting overnight fishing parties for
sportsmen. A dozen wellheads dot the marsh where Toby picks us up by boat.
Heading out to the barge through one canal, he says, "I used to be able to
spit to the mud on either side. Now they run big oil containers through
here."
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Drowning New Orleans
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Inside the barge's wide-open room, Danny offers other measures: "Two years
ago we drove a wooden two-by-four into the mud on the edge of a canal, to
stake our alligator trap. I went past it the other day; the edge has receded
18 feet from the stake. Doesn't much matter, though. The gators are gone.
Water's too salty."
With the marsh disappearing, the delta's only remaining defense is some
crumbling barrier islands that a century ago were part of the region's
shoreline. The next morning Penland and I travel an hour down the coast to
the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, a scientific outpost in
Cocodrie, an encampment of scientists and fishermen on the coast's edge.
>From there we head out in one of the consortium's gray research boats.
The boat pounds across what appears to be choppy sea for 50 minutes before
we reach Isles Dernieres ("last islands" in French). But the open surf is
never more than seven feet deep. The vast reach of shallow water was once
thick with swaying grasses, parted occasionally by narrow, serpentine
waterways full of shrimp, oysters, redfish and trout. Penland beaches us in
the bayside mud. We walk across a mere 80 yards of barren sand before we toe
the ocean. A similarly diminutive outcrop is visible in the distance to
either side. They are what remains of a once very long, staunch island lush
with black mangroves. "It broke up ocean waves, cut down storm surges and
held back saltwater so the marsh behind it could thrive," Penland says in
mourning. Now the ocean rushes right by.
Louisiana's barrier islands are eroding faster than any around the country.
Millions of tons of sediment used to exit the Mississippi River's mouth
every year and be dragged by longshore currents to the islands, building up
what tides had worn away. But in part because levees and dredging prevent
the river's last miles from meandering naturally, the mouth has telescoped
out to the continental shelf. The sediment just drops over the edge of the
underwater cliff into the deep ocean.
Back in New Orleans the next day it becomes apparent that other human
activities have made matters worse. Cliff Mugnier, an L.S.U. geodesist who
also works part-time for the Corps of Engineers, explains why from the third
floor of the rectangular, cement Corps headquarters, which squats atop the
Mississippi River levee the Corps has built and rebuilt for 122 years.
Mugnier says that the earth beneath the delta consists of layers of muck--a
wet peat several hundred feet deep--formed by centuries of flooding. As the
Corps leveed the river, the city and industry drained large marshes, which
in decades past were considered wasteland. Stopping the floods and draining
surface water lowered the water table, allowing the top mucks to dry,
consolidate and subside, hastening the city's drop below sea level--a
process already under way as the underlying mucks consolidated naturally.
That's not all. As the bowl became deeper, it would flood during routine
rainstorms. So the Corps, in cooperation with the city's Sewerage and Water
Board, began digging a maze of canals to collect rainwater. The only place
to send it was Lake Pontchartrain. But because the lake's mean elevation is
one foot, the partners had to build pumping stations at the canal heads to
push the collected runoff uphill into the lake.
The pumps serve another critical function. Because the canals are basically
ditches, groundwater seeps into them from the wet soils. But if they are
full, they can't take on water during a storm. So the city runs the pumps
regularly to expel seepage from the canals, which draws even more water from
the ground, leading to further drying and subsidence. "We are aggravating
our own problem," Mugnier says. Indeed, the Corps is building more canals
and enlarging pumping stations, because the lower the city sinks, the more
it floods. In the meantime, streets, driveways and backyards cave in, and
houses blow up when natural-gas lines rupture. Mugnier is also worried about
the parishes (counties) bordering the city, which are digging drainage
canals as they become more populated. In St. Charles Parish to the west, he
says, "the surface could subside by
as much as 14 feet."
The Scare
Humankind can't stop the delta's subsidence, and it can't knock down the
levees to allow natural river flooding and meandering, because the region is
developed. The only realistic solutions, most scientists and engineers
agree, are to rebuild the vast marshes so they can absorb high waters and
reconnect the barrier islands to cut down surges and protect the renewed
marshes from the sea. Since the late 1980s Louisiana's senators have made
various pleas to Congress to fund massive remedial work. But they were not
backed by a unified voice. L.S.U. had its surge models, and the Corps had
others. Despite agreement on general solutions, competition abounded as to
whose specific projects would be most effective. The Corps sometimes painted
academics' cries about disaster as veiled pitches for research money.
Academia occasionally retorted that the Corps's solution to everything was
to bulldoze more dirt and pour more concrete, without scientific rationale.
Meanwhile oystermen and shrimpers complained that the proposals from both
the scientists and the engineers would ruin their fishing grounds.
Len Bahr, head of the governor's Coastal Activities Office in Baton Rouge,
tried to bring everyone together. Passionate about southern Louisiana, Bahr
has survived three governors, each with different sympathies. "This is the
realm in which science has to operate," Bahr says. "There are five federal
agencies and six state agencies with jurisdiction over what happens in the
wetlands." Throughout the 1990s, Bahr says with frustration, "we only
received $40 million a year" from Congress, a drop compared with the bucket
of need. Even with the small projects made possible by these dollars,
Louisiana scientists predicted that by 2050 coastal Louisiana would lose
another 1,000 square miles of marsh and swamp, an area the size of Rhode
Island.
Then Hurricane Georges arrived in September 1998. Its fiercely circulating
winds built a wall of water 17 feet high topped with driven waves, which
threatened to surge into Lake Pontchartrain and wash into New Orleans. This
was the very beast that L.S.U.'s early models had warned about, and it was
headed right for the city. Luckily, just before Georges made landfall, it
slowed and turned a scant two degrees to the east. The surge collapsed under
suddenly chaotic winds.
A Grand Plan
The scientists, engineers and politicians who had been squabbling realized
how close the entire delta had come to disaster, and Bahr says that it
scared them into reaching a consensus. Late in 1998 the governor's office,
the state's Department of Natural Resources, the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Fish and Wildlife
Service and all 20 of the state's coastal parishes published Coast 2050--a
blueprint for restoring coastal Louisiana.
No group is bound by the plan, however, and if all the projects were
pursued, the price tag would be $14 billion. "So," I ask in the ninth-floor
conference room adjacent to the governor's office in Baton Rouge, "give me
the short list" of Coast 2050 projects that would make the most difference.
Before me are Joe Suhayda, director of L.S.U.'s Louisiana Water Resources
Research Institute, who has modeled numerous storm tracks and knows the key
scientists, Corps engineers, and city emergency planners; Vibhas
Aravamuthan, who programs L.S.U.'s computer models; Len Bahr; and Bahr's
second-in-command, Paul Kemp. All were involved in designing Coast 2050.
First and foremost, they decide, build a river diversion at several critical
spots along the Mississippi, to restore disappearing marshland. At each
location the Corps would cut a channel through the river levee on its south
side and build control gates that would allow freshwater and suspended
sediment to wash down through select marshes toward the gulf. The water
could disrupt oyster beds, but if the sites were carefully selected, deals
could be made with landowners.
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Every 24 minutes Louisiana loses one acre of land.
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The second step: rebuild the southern barrier islands using more than 500
million cubic yards of sand from nearby Ship Shoal. Next, the Corps would
cut a channel in the narrow neck of the river delta at about halfway down.
Ships could enter the river there, shortening their trip to interior ports
and saving them money. The Corps could then stop dredging the southern end
of the river. The mouth would fill with sediment and begin overflowing to
the west, sending sand and silt back into those longshore currents that
could sustain the barrier islands.
The channel plan might be integrated into a larger state proposal to build
an entire new Millennium Port. It would provide deeper draft for modern
container ships than the Port of New Orleans and its main channel, the
Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO, pronounced Mr. Go), which the Corps
dredged in the early 1960s. The outlet has eroded terribly--from 500 feet
across, originally, to 2,000 feet in places--and let in a relentless stream
of saltwater that has killed much of the marsh that once protected eastern
New Orleans against gulf storms. If the channel or the Millennium Port were
built, the Corps could close MrGo.
A remaining chink in the delta's armor is the pair of narrow straits on Lake
Pontchartrain's eastern edge where it connects to the gulf. The obvious
solution would be to gate them, just as the Netherlands does to regulate the
North Sea's flow inland. But it would be a tough sell. "We've proposed that
in the past, and it's been shot down," Bahr says. The project's costs would
be extremely high.
This list of the most promising Coast 2050 projects is only one small
group's vision, of course, yet other established experts concur with its
fundamentals. Ivor van Heerden, a geologist who is deputy director of
L.S.U.'s Hurricane Center, concurs that "if we're going to succeed, we've
got to mimic nature. Building diversions and reestablishing barrier-island
sediment flows are the closest we can come." Shea Penland pretty much
agrees, although he warns that the Mississippi River may not carry enough
sediment to feed multiple diversions. U.S. Geological Survey studies by
Robert Meade show that the supply of suspended sediment is less than half of
what it was prior to 1953, diverted mostly by dams along the river's course
through middle America.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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With no action, one million people could be trapped.
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As far as the Corps is concerned, all of the Coast 2050 projects should be
implemented. The first to become a reality is the Davis Pond diversion, due
to begin operating by the end of this year. Project manager Al Naomi, a
30-year Corps civil engineer, and Bruce Baird, a biological oceanographer,
brought me to the construction site on the Mississippi's southern levee, 20
miles west of New Orleans. The structure looks like a modest dam, in line
with the levee. Steel gates in its midsection, each large enough to drive a
bus through, will open and close to control water flowing through it. The
water will exit into a wide swath of cleared swamp that extends south for a
mile, forming a shallow riverbed that will gradually disperse into
boundary-less marsh. The structure will divert up to 10,650 cubic feet per
second (cfs) of water from the Mississippi, whose total flow past New
Orleans ranges from less than 200,000 cfs during droughts to more than one
million cfs during floods. The outflow should help preserve 33,000 acres of
wetlands, oysterbeds and fishing grounds.
The Corps is bullish on Davis Pond because of its success at Caernarvon, a
smaller, experimental diversion it opened in 1991 near MrGo. By 1995
Caernarvon had restored 406 acres by increasing the marsh's sediment and
reducing its salinity with freshwater.
Who Should Pay?
The corps of engineers is hiring more scientists for projects such as Davis
Pond, a signal that the fragmented parties are beginning to work better
together. Bahr would like to integrate science and engineering further by
requiring independent scientific review of proposed Corps projects before
the state signed on--which Louisiana would need to do because Congress would
require the state to share the cost of such work.
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If Congress and President George W. Bush hear a unified call for action,
authorizing it would seem prudent. Restoring coastal Louisiana would protect
the country's seafood and shipping industries and its oil and natural-gas
supply. It would also save America's largest wetlands, a bold environmental
stroke. And without action, the million people outside New Orleans would
have to relocate. The other million inside the bowl would live at the bottom
of a sinking crater, surrounded by ever higher walls, trapped in a
terminally ill city dependent on nonstop pumping to keep it alive.
Funding the needed science and engineering would also unearth better ways to
save the country's vanishing wetlands and the world's collapsing deltas. It
would improve humankind's understanding of nature's long-term processes--and
the stakes of interfering, even with good intentions. And it could help
governments learn how to minimize damage from rising seas, as well as from
violent weather, at a time when the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration predicts more storms of greater intensity as a result of
climate change.
Walter Maestri doesn't welcome that prospect. When Allison, the first
tropical storm of the 2001 hurricane season, dumped five inches of rain a
day on New Orleans for a week in June, it nearly maxed out the pumping
system. Maestri spent his nights in a flood-proof command bunker built
underground to evade storm winds; from there he dispatched police, EMTs,
firefighters and National Guardsmen. It was only rain, yet it stressed the
response teams. "Any significant water that comes into this city is a
dangerous threat," he says. "Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even
want to think about the loss of life a huge hurricane would cause."
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Mark Fischetti is a contributing editor.
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