[Mb-civic] The China syndrome - Ross Terrill - Boston Globe Op-Ed

[William Swiggard]

The China syndrome

By Ross Terrill  |  November 16, 2005

AS PRESIDENT Bush readies his chopsticks to dine with President Hu 
Jintao tomorrow, he might ponder whether the rise of China means the 
eclipse of the United States.

Some Americans see China pushing us aside. Some even grasp at China's 
rise as a stick to beat the Bush administration. Any rise with the 
potential to take President Bush down a peg or two is maximized by those 
for whom Bush's America would not be their first choice as the world's 
sole superpower. Take a deep breath. The US economy is seven times the 
size of China's and the Japanese economy is three times China's. Not 
least, China is a Leninist regime -- the kind that mostly went up in a 
puff of smoke 15 years ago.

None of this is to deny that China's economy is expanding rapidly, with 
annual GDP growth of 8 to 9 percent, according to official figures. The 
global consequences of this are clear, as China seeks new markets and 
sucks in increased imports. At a broader level, Beijing expands its 
military, spurs nationalist spirit, and enjoys growing diplomatic clout 
well beyond Asia.

China's foreign policy seeks to maximize stability at home (for example, 
by keeping the status quo across Xinjiang's borders with Central Asia) 
and sustain China's impressive economic growth (for example, by 
safeguarding the huge US market). A third goal is to maintain peace in 
China's complicated geographic situation with no less than 14 abutting 
neighbors. So far so good. This is a prudent foreign policy.

But China also has two dubious goals. One is to replace the United 
States as the chief source of influence in East Asia. Hence Chinese 
efforts to drive a wedge between Japan and the United States and Chinese 
whispers in Australian ears that Canberra would be better off looking 
only to Asia and not across the Pacific. The other is to ''regain" 
territories that Beijing feels fall within its sovereignty. These 
include not only Taiwan but a large number of islands east and south of 
China and, eventually, portions of the Russian Far East to which Beijing 
has laid territorial claims in the past.

Whether Beijing can achieve these goals depends on how long its rigid 
political system can survive, and on the reaction of other powers to 
China's ambitions. A middle-class push for property rights, rural 
discontent, increased use of the Internet, huge numbers of unemployed, 
and a suddenly aging population bringing financial and social strains 
all dramatize the contradictions inherent in ''market Leninism." 
Traveling one road in economics and another in politics does not make 
for a settled destination.

China's economy may continue to grow at its present rate. Or China may 
retain its Leninist party state. But it can hardly do both. Either the 
economic or the political logic will soon gain the upper hand.

(continued)...
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/11/16/the_china_syndrome/
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