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 For Democrats, Two States of Hope

 By David S. Broder

  New Jersey and Virginia are the only states electing governors this year, but for very different reasons those contests have unusual national importance. The New Jersey election could help create a Democratic power bloc of big-state governors rivaling the influence of the Republican grip on key Sun Belt  states. And Virginia could not only test the GOP's hold on the South but directly influence the prospects of a pair of potential presidential candidates.

 Virginia clings to a one-term limit on its governors, and Democrat Mark Warner is leaving after a successful four-year run in which the state has climbed out of a financial hole, added thousands of jobs and notably improved its education system.

 The contest to succeed Warner pits Democratic Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine against Republican former attorney general Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore has minor opposition in the GOP primary but a potentially more serious problem with state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr., a maverick Republican, running as an independent in November.

 Virginia was part of President Bush's sweep of Dixie last November, when the South also elected five new Republican senators to formerly Democratic seats. The Kaine-Kilgore race will signal whether the momentum of those victories continues. Should Warner be able to help Kaine keep the governorship in Democratic hands, it would enhance Warner's growing reputation as a potential aspirant for the 2008 national ticket. Warner has won plaudits as the current chairman of the National Governors Association, one of the steppingstones in Bill Clinton's rise to the presidency. But he needs to demonstrate, through a successful effort for Kaine, that he was more than a brief deviation in Virginia's Republicanism.

 On the other side, Kilgore has the backing of the state's former Republican governor, Sen. George Allen, a personable conservative campaigner who built his national reputation as last year's successful chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. A Kilgore victory would be another feather in Allen's 2008 cap.

 In New Jersey, which is normally a Democratic state, odd circumstances have created an opening for the first truly imposing Democrat in decades to win the governorship. He is Jon Corzine, now a U.S. senator and previously the chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank.

 In 2000 Corzine, as a novice candidate, spent $60 million of his own fortune to win an upset victory in the Senate primary and general election. Now 58 and with high approval ratings, he would normally be preparing for a relatively easy reelection campaign in 2006.

 But Democratic Gov. James McGreevey was forced to step down last year after revealing a sexual affair with a man he had appointed to state office, and acting Gov. Richard Codey, a veteran legislator, was viewed as vulnerable to Republican challenge.

 So Corzine stepped in and instantly became a favorite over anyone who emerges from the multi-candidate Republican field. Corzine's name surfaced recently on tapes made of George Norcross III, an influential Democratic power broker, whose political action committee had benefited from Corzine's largesse and who claimed in the clandestine recordings to be influential with the senator.

 But Republicans have a way to go to dent Corzine's reputation for independence, and he has put forward a "reform" agenda that he says would substantially reduce the possibility of any New Jersey governor's handing out jobs and contracts to political friends.

 In an interview, Corzine said that as a business executive he is excited by the prospect of running a major state, showcasing "what a progressive politician with a commitment to fiscal responsibility can do." With New York's Democratic attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, leading the 2006 gubernatorial polls in that state (and growing doubts about whether incumbent Republican Gov. George Pataki will even run for reelection), Democrats can foresee the possibility of a pair of highly aggressive, politically sophisticated and business-savvy governors leading those two states in the 2008 campaign.

 Toss in Pennsylvania's Gov. Ed Rendell, a former Democratic National Committee chairman and an early favorite for reelection in 2006, and the Democrats would have a bloc of Northeastern political powerhouses whose combined weight would come close to matching that of the Republican governors of California, Florida and Texas -- the anchors of the GOP Sun Belt strategy.

 Democratic incumbents will also be running next year in Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which were won by John Kerry last year, so the party could have a second regional base from which to rally in 2008. But for now, the spotlight will be on Virginia and New Jersey, and Democrats like their chances in both states.

 davidbroder at washpost.com

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