[Mb-civic] FW: Israeli think tank: Only U.S. can neutralize Iran

[Golsorkhi]

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From: Samii Shahla <shahla at thesamiis.com>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 18:03:53 -0500
Subject: Israeli think tank: Only U.S.  can neutralize Iran

  Israeli think tank: Only U.S. can neutralize Iran


  SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COMWednesday, January 12, 2005

  TEL AVIV ‹ An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would pose
greater risks than benefits, a new report concluded.

  The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said an Israeli attack on Iran
would fail to either destroy all of its nuclear facilities or halt the
program. The report said Teheran could retaliate by launching massive
rocket and missile strikes on the Jewish state ‹ from either Iran or
Lebanon.

  In 1981, Israeli F-16 multi-role fighters destroyed Iraq's nuclear
reactor in a single bombing mission, said to have set back Baghdad's
weapons program about a decade.

  "An overall assessment suggests that risks involved in an Israeli
attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities outweigh the opportunities,"
the report, authored by Ephraim Kam, said. "An attack would have to
take into consideration operational and other problems that are liable
to impede success, while at the same time may spark an Iranian and
international response, if only a limited one."

  Kam, a reserve intelligence officer and regarded as a leading analyst
on Teheran's strategic weapons programs, said a military operation to
destroy Iran's nuclear facilities could exceed Israel's capabilities.
He said such a mission could be conducted only by a superpower such as
the United States.

  [On Tuesday, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon
Zeevi-Farkash said Iran would need another six months to acquire full
capability to enrich uranium, a major component in the assembly of
nuclear weapons. Addressing a seminar at Haifa University, the military
intelligence chief said Iran could produce nuclear warheads as early as
2007.]

  Entitled "Curbing the Iranian Nuclear Threat: The Military Option,"
the report asserted that Israel has failed to locate all of Iran's
nuclear facilities. In contrast to Iraq, Iran has built numerous
underground facilities and could quickly reconstitute its nuclear
program, the report said.

  Israel must fulfill a range of requirements before considering a
strike on Iran, the report said. The requirements include an "accurate
intelligence estimate of the state of the Iranian nuclear program" and
a determination that any attack would set back Iran's nuclear program
for many years.

  "Consequently, the conclusion is that Israel must permit the
international community to make every possible effort to halt Iran's
nuclear program by diplomatic means and to consign military steps to a
last resort," the report added.

  "If it transpires that following the attack the completion of the
program is delayed by one or two years only, it is possible that the
result does not justify the risks," the report said. "It will also be
necessary to take into account that the circumstances will not permit a
repeated attack on major facilities that were not damaged in the first
attack or that were discovered later."

  The report said any Israeli attack would also require coordination
with the United States. Israeli warplanes on their way to Iran would
probably enter U.S. military operation zones in the Gulf or Iraq.

  "Coordination with the U.S. is itself problematic: there is no
certainty that the American administration would agree to such
coordination, which brings with it its own set of risks, and it is not
certain it would favor a military operation against Iran," the report
said. "Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be excluded that the
administration would be interested in Israel doing the dirty work, in
order to present it as an independent Israeli operation and thereby
reduce the risks of association with this operation."

  The report ‹ in contrast to the assessment by Israeli military
intelligence ‹ said Iran appears to no longer depend on foreign
suppliers for the acquisition of nuclear technology. Iran was also
believed to employ engineers and scientists who could produce enriched
uranium and plutonium.

  "This means that even if several major Iranian nuclear facilities were
attacked, such as the centrifuges facility for uranium enrichment in
Natanz, Iran would be capable of constructing replacement facilities in
a short time," the report said. "Furthermore, the possibility cannot be
ignored that Iran has already secretly constructed additional nuclear
facilities that have not yet been identified to back up those
discovered."

  The retaliatory options for Iran include the launching of its
intermediate-range Shihab-3 missile and massive rocket attacks by
Hizbullah from Lebanon. The report said Iran could also order
mass-casualty strikes against targets outside Israel.

  "Given the difficulties and risks involved in implementation of the
military option, Israel must adopt the position that the major burden
of dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat ‹ by both diplomatic and
military means ‹ must be borne by the U.S. administration, and not by
Israel," the report said. "In the final analysis, the handling of a
problem of this magnitude must be the responsibility of a superpower
and not a local country."

  Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc.
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http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/05/breaking2453383.1625.html

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