[Mb-civic] An article for you from an Economist.com reader.

Wed Oct 27 09:45:26 PDT 2004

- AN ARTICLE FOR YOU, FROM ECONOMIST.COM - 

Dear civic,

Michael Butler (michael at intrafi.com) wants you to see this article on Economist.com.

(Note: the sender's e-mail address above has not been verified.)

Subscribe to Economist.com now and save 25% by clicking here now
http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

KASHMIR
Oct 27th 2004  

At last, a real--if one-sided--debate over Kashmir kicks off

IN THE 18 months that India and Pakistan have been trying to mend their
57-year feud, there have sometimes seemed to be two parallel peace
processes. In one, sombre-suited diplomats engage in a painstaking
"composite dialogue". The other is a solo show by Pakistan's president,
General Pervez Musharraf. He sometimes loses patience with the hard
grind of the diplomatic trenches and goes over the top, sharing his
ideas directly with a public microphone. Once a commando, his officials
must think, always a loose cannon.

His latest musings are the most undiplomatic yet. Hitherto, in talking
of the core of Pakistan's dispute with India--the future of
Kashmir--General Musharraf has stuck to general principles. Kashmir is
divided into zones of Indian and Pakistani administration by a "line of
control" neither recognises as a permanent border. General Musharraf
has always insisted that this status quo cannot be the basis of a
solution, and is in fact the dispute itself, which has caused three
wars, most recently in 1999. He has proposed a process where both sides
suggest options, reject those either finds unacceptable and then hammer
out a solution. All well and good; but there has been no evidence the
two sides could get beyond the second stage. 

On Monday October 25th, however, at a Ramadan fast-breaking dinner,
General Musharraf took his ideas two steps further. First, he seemed to
accept that, just as the line of control was unacceptable to Pakistan,
so Pakistan's demand for a plebiscite, in which Kashmiris would choose
between accession to India and Pakistan, was never going to be allowed
by India. 

Second, he started to elaborate some other options. He said that
Kashmir has seven regions, two in Pakistan and five in India. He argued
that some or all of these regions should be demilitarised and their
"status" changed. The result could be independence, "condominium"
between India and Pakistan, or a "United Nations mandate". 

There are two ways of looking at General Musharraf's startling
proposals. On the bright side: India, although formally claiming
Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, has long been prepared to settle for the
line of control as the international boundary. Modify the
"independence" that General Musharraf lists as an option into some form
of "enhanced autonomy" and a solution seems possible.

There are, however, two reasons for scepticism. First, in their current
form, all of General Musharraf's proposals, which echo ideas in
circulation for some time, are unacceptable to India. Second,
negotiation by press conference implies that the gulf between the two
sides is so wide that these sorts of ideas have not even been broached.

India duly responded with chilly formality, saying it was not prepared
to discuss Kashmir through the media and that the composite dialogue
was the proper forum. But at least it did not rule out talking on these
lines. It probably calculates that General Musharraf needs to start
building a constituency in Pakistan for a radical change in the
country's negotiating position. He also needs to persuade Pakistanis
and foreign allies alike that his apparent intention to break a pledge
and stay on as head of the armed forces after the end of this year is
justified by the challenges ahead. 

His domestic opponents have already accused him of plotting a
"sell-out" in Kashmir. So, by implication, have pro-Pakistan leaders in
Indian Kashmir. In the five years since he took power in a bloodless
coup, General Musharraf has steered his government through some drastic
policy shifts. Besides making a mockery of his own promises of
restoring democracy, he has managed to ditch Pakistan's erstwhile
proteges in Afghanistan and to disgrace a national hero, Abdul Qadeer
Khan, for retailing nuclear know-how. All of this has met resistance,
which, so far, he has blithely overcome. Now, he may just have begun
his hardest sell yet: a campaign to persuade his countrymen to drop
most of Pakistan's claims on Kashmir.

See this article with graphics and related items at http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3328446

Go to http://www.economist.com for more global news, views and analysis from the Economist Group.

- ABOUT ECONOMIST.COM -

Economist.com is the online version of The Economist newspaper, an independent weekly international news and business publication offering clear reporting, commentary and analysis on world politics, business, finance, science & technology, culture, society and the arts. Economist.com also offers exclusive content online, including additional articles throughout the week in the Global Agenda section.

- SUBSCRIBE NOW AND SAVE 25% -

Click here: http://www.economist.com/subscriptions/offer.cfm?campaign=168-XLMT

Subscribe now with 25% off and receive full access to: 

* all the articles published in The Economist newspaper
* the online archive - allowing you to search and retrieve over 33,000 articles published in The Economist since 1997 
* The World in 2004 - The Economist's outlook on 2004 
* The US Election 2004 - providing dedicated coverage of the election, including articles from Roll Call, Capitol Hill's leading political publication 
* Business encyclopedia - allows you to find a definition and explanation for any business term 

- ABOUT THIS E-MAIL -

This e-mail was sent to you by the person at the e-mail address listed
above through a link found on Economist.com.  We will not send you any 
future messages as a result of your being the recipient of this e-mail.

- COPYRIGHT -

Economist.com privacy policy: http://www.economist.com/about/privacy.cfm