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Wed Oct 27 09:43:30 PDT 2004

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SHARON SCORES A VICTORY BUT RISKS A MUTINY
Oct 27th 2004  

Israel's parliament has voted to support Ariel Sharon's plan to pull
Jewish settlers out of the Gaza strip and parts of the West Bank. It
would be an historic withdrawal but it is not assured, for Mr Sharon
now faces a power struggle

IT WAS a famous, and unusual, victory. On Tuesday October 26th,
Israel's parliament, the Knesset, endorsed the prime minister's plan to
withdraw Jewish settlers from the Gaza strip and from a handful of
settlements in the northern West Bank. Ariel Sharon won by a clear
majority of 67 to 45, with seven abstentions (one of the Knesset's 120
members was away sick). It was a rare moment of satisfaction for
Israel's embattled leader. And one that did not last long: after the
vote, his troubles intensified as he faced a new power struggle.

The vote tore apart the ruling Likud party, with 23 members voting for
the "disengagement" plan and 17 voting against it. The prime minister
relied on the centre-left opposition to achieve his majority. But he
now faces an ultimatum from important Likud ministers who are demanding
a national referendum on the pull-out. The right-wing National
Religious Party, which holds the key to the current governing
coalition, is on the verge of a defection that would leave Mr Sharon
with an unstable minority. He has to find a new political formula that
enables him both to stay in power and implement his plan.

Yet the vote's significance should not be underestimated. For the first
time since Israel captured the West Bank and Gaza in a 1967 war, the
Knesset has approved a plan to evacuate and destroy Jewish settlements
in these territories. It is not yet a point of no return: there will be
additional parliamentary and cabinet decisions to take before the
actual pull-out, scheduled for next summer. But Mr Sharon believes that
once the timetable is set, it cannot be stopped.

He also says that bringing the plan to the Knesset was the hardest
decision of his entire military and political life. The prime minister
is no great orator. In a monotonous voice, his spectacled eyes focused
on the text, he used uncharacteristic pathos to explain the logic of
his programme. He spoke of the security dangers facing Israel, and of
the demographic threat that ruling over millions of Palestinians "who
double their numbers every generation" is posing to Israeli democracy.

As architect of the settlements, Mr Sharon spoke with sorrow of the
settlers now bound for evacuation. But then he quoted the late Menachem
Begin, the father of the Israeli right, who told the settlers in 1977:
"You are wonderful pioneers...Yet you have one weakness, you have
developed a Messianic complex among you." With his majority secured by
the parties to his left, the prime minister played tough with the Likud
rebels, making it clear that any minister or deputy minister who did
not support the plan would be fired immediately.

Two arch-rebels lost their cabinet jobs, but all the other Likud
ministers voted yes, some after last-minute hesitation. But then came
the ultimatum of four ministers, led by Binyamin Netanyahu, Mr Sharon's
chief rival and heir apparent, who said they would resign from the
government unless a referendum were held within two weeks. Mr Sharon
responded that he would never surrender to pressure and threats, yet,
ever the politician, allowed himself room for manoeuvre: "people may
sometimes change their minds".

With crucial votes looming on both Gaza and the budget, Mr Sharon has
to choose between three hard options. First, he can succumb to the
mounting pressure and accept a referendum. The trouble with this is
that it would not only delay the pull-out but he might also lose it.
Second, he could call an early election but that is also a risk: Mr
Netanyahu might oust Mr Sharon as the candidate. Even if he did not,
the Likud's ambivalence over the disengagement plan would make
campaigning hard. The third option is to bring Shimon Peres's Labour
party into the coalition. However, it would still be difficult to get
Likud approval for this move.

Mr Sharon's own preference would be to keep things as they are, and
continue ruling over parallel coalitions. That way, he would get
left-wing support for the pull-out plan, and right-wing votes for the
budget. But the widening Likud mutiny may have ruled this out.

NOT BY THE SWORD ALONE
As politicians gathered for their fight in Jerusalem, real fighting
grew ever bloodier in Gaza. On Monday, the Israeli army invaded Khan
Yunis in southern Gaza, leaving 17 Palestinians dead, 65 wounded and a
landscape of ruined homes and razed pasture. The immediate reason for
the action was the barrage of mortars that had been fired on Jewish
settlements. These, in turn, were Hamas's response to Israel's
assassination last week of one of its senior military leaders, Adnan
al-Ghoul. 

But the current bloodletting goes well beyond simple tit-for-tat. Mr
Sharon's military strategy seems aimed at crushing Hamas and the other
armed Palestinian groups in Gaza. Not only would this ensure a smooth
withdrawal, but almost more important, it would refute Israeli critics,
and triumphal members of Hamas, who charge Israel's prime minister with
retreating under fire.

In military terms the strategy is succeeding, up to a point. But
politically it has backfired. Opinion polls show that Hamas is now the
most popular Palestinian group in Gaza. It has gained this position
through the sacrifice of its fighters and the "martyrdom" of its
leaders, and through its charities, which still supply essential
services to a desperately poor people.

An understanding with Hamas seems, to most Israelis, to be out of the
question. But this is not necessarily so. For the past year, Hamas
leaders have been quietly conferring with the Palestinian Authority and
with Egypt over the possibility of a Palestinian ceasefire if or when
Israel leaves Gaza.

Mr Sharon has so far rejected any truce. But Egyptian officials believe
that there have occasionally been chinks in his armour. One such chink
may, perhaps, be found in his speech this week to the Knesset. "I have
learned from experience one cannot be victorious by the sword alone,"
he said. There could be no better place than Gaza to test that wisdom. 

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