[Mb-civic] WSJ-Zogby Poll Shows Kerry Moving Ahead The Wall Street Journal

[Michael Butler]

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    WSJ-Zogby Poll Shows Kerry Moving Ahead
    The Wall Street Journal

     Wednesday 06 October 2004

     

    The presidential debate has lifted John Kerry back to where he was in
our battleground analysis before the Republican convention energized the
Bush campaign.

     The latest Zogby Interactive poll puts Mr. Kerry ahead of President
Bush in 13 of the 16 closely contested states -- two more states than the
Massachusetts senator led before the debate and the most since August. The
latest survey was conducted between last Thursday, after the debate ended,
and Tuesday afternoon, before vice-presidential contenders Dick Cheney and
John Edwards debated.

     Mr. Kerry moved ahead in two states (Ohio and Nevada) and increased his
lead in seven others -- though Mr. Kerry's margin over Mr. Bush in Ohio,
Arkansas and Florida was negligible -- less than one percentage point. Mr.
Bush's lead narrowed in the three states (Missouri, Tennessee and West
Virginia) that he remains ahead of Mr. Kerry. Overall, seven of Mr. Kerry¹s
leads are within the margins of error, while all of Mr. Bush¹s leads are.

     If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would
win. Here's how:

     To analyze Zogby's results, we begin by assuming that the District of
Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote
for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election.
Thus, Mr. Bush starts with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A
candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

     To those numbers, we add the electoral votes from the latest poll,
regardless of the margins of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr.
Kerry's 13 states have 150 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush's three have 27
votes. The bottom line: Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the
president would have 216.

     That 106-vote margin is far wider than the last analysis, on Sept. 20,
the president was just 56 electoral votes behind Mr. Kerry.

     It is important to remember, of course, that the results from 10 of the
16 states fell within the margins of error in the latest poll. All six of
the states whose results were outside the margin show Mr. Kerry in the lead.
Among those is Pennsylvania, which has become more closely contested since
the Republican convention.

     It is also crucial to note that Zogby's numbers are just one snapshot
of where sentiment stands. Nationwide and single-state polls this election
season have shown wide divergences and Electoral College calculations from
this hodgepodge have been just as volatile.

     For instance, an electoral-college calculation by The Cook Political
Report has the race about even. Adding the states that it finds solidly,
likely and leaning for each candidate, it puts Mr. Bush ahead 208-207, with
123 electoral votes in the middle. The newsletter, which says it bases its
calculations on information provided by both parties, names Minnesota,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin among toss up states.

     A count by Web site Slate, which relies on a variety of polling
sources, puts Mr. Bush ahead 321-217. It includes in Mr. Bush's column
states such as Arkansas, Florida and Nevada (in which Zogby shows narrow
leads for Mr. Kerry) and Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico (which Zogby
says the senator leads firmly).

     Of course, the timing of polls can play a big role in disparities
between Electoral College calculations. Of the six states in the Slate
analysis mentioned above, the leanings of only Florida and Nevada were based
on polls that were conducted after the debate.

     Nevertheless, the Zogby results gibe closely with those from some other
state polls that have come out since the presidential debate. For example,
Mr. Kerry¹s 5.4-point lead in Pennsylvania is just a bit below the senator¹s
7.3% lead shown by a poll taken by West Chester University. Similarly, the
narrow Florida lead for Kerry in Zogby is close to that shown by the latest
American Research Group poll. Yet, Zogby numbers also differ from some state
polls. For example, while Zogby finds Mr. Kerry up by one point in Nevada, a
SurveyUSA poll has Mr. Bush ahead by four points.

  

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