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Mon Nov 29 11:27:50 PST 2004

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MY DAD WANTS YOU TO ELECT ME
Nov 25th 2004  

Steamy stuff in the South--and more gains for the Republicans

ANYONE who decided that the main presidential electoral dinner was
rather tame should perhaps pop down to Louisiana for a nightcap. Under
the state's unusual election system, all congressional candidates run
in open primaries on Election Day. Unless one gets more than 50% of the
vote, the top two finishers meet in a run-off. And that's where the
action is really getting under way in two congressional districts in
Huey Long's home state. 

Take, for instance, one recent ad showing a young boy romping around
absurdly in a man's business suit. The words "little Billy Tauzin"
appear on screen in colourful, clownish lettering. 

As everyone in Louisiana's swampy third congressional district knows,
Billy Tauzin III is the 30-year-old son of Congressman Billy Tauzin
junior, the former House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman, who is
now retiring. Though criticised by Yankee consumer groups as a shill
for broadcasters and the Baby Bell phone companies, the elder Mr Tauzin
is beloved in Louisiana for his charm, legislative mastery and
pork-procuring abilities. The resume of the younger Mr Tauzin (who is
also a Republican) is considerably shorter. Before getting a job as a
lobbyist for BellSouth, "Little Billy" sold cellular phones at a
shopping mall in Virginia. 

Helped by his name, Mr Tauzin led the field on November 2nd (with 32%
of the vote), followed by Charlie Melancon, a former state legislator
and sugar lobbyist (24%). Mr Melancon's campaign was commonly
considered to have started out dull; the little Billy Tauzin ad is a
sign that the Democrat is at last warming up for the run-off on
December 4th, but for now most of the smart money is still on Mr Tauzin.

PAINTING THE STATE RED
Mr Tauzin's family connections aren't the only thing working in his
favour. The Republicans are on a roll in Louisiana. Indeed, they also
expect to win the other congressional run-off in the seventh district,
where Charles Boustany, a former heart surgeon, should fend off Willie
Mount, a Democratic state legislator.

The Democrats, who used to dominate the state in Long's day, have had a
lousy year. In August, one of their few remaining congressmen, Rodney
Alexander, who had only sneaked into the House in 2002 on the strength
of a massive Democratic get-out-the-vote drive for Senator Mary
Landrieu, abruptly switched parties on the final day of qualifying.
Indignant Democrats had no time to find a suitable candidate, and the
freshly Republican Mr Alexander waltzed home. 

By contrast, in the race to replace John Breaux, their popular retiring
senator, the Democrats ignored attempts to rally round Congressman
Chris John. Two other Democrats joined the fray, whilst the Republicans
fielded Congressman David Vitter. A staunch conservative on most
issues, Mr Vitter softened his image with ads that portrayed him as a
flustered dad. Buoyed by George Bush's popularity, he won 51% in the
primary and will be the state's first Republican senator since
Reconstruction.

Despite these setbacks, Democrats are still far stronger in Louisiana
than elsewhere in the South. Ms Landrieu hung on to her Senate seat two
years ago, and last year, Kathleen Blanco won the governorship even
after finishing a distant second in the primary. Most statewide elected
officials belong to the party, as do most state legislators, sheriffs,
assessors and other local officials. 

Yet many of these politicians--including the party's two congressional
run-off candidates--would be unrecognisable as Democrats in Boston or
Berkeley. Ms Mount, for instance, opposes abortion and has an "A"
rating from the National Rifle Association. Mr John supported
cockfighting, which encouraged animal-rights groups to run ads against
him (hurting him among suburban women).

In their attempts to woo white conservatives, the Democrats often
alienate blacks (who make up a quarter of the electorate). In the
seventh district primary, leading Democrats pushed for the white Ms
Mount over Donald Cravins, a black state legislator. He has declined to
support Ms Mount in the run-off and is threatening to sue the party for
taking sides. 

Part of the problem for the Democrats may be the open primary itself,
which was designed in the days when "Louisiana Republican" was an
oxymoron. But because voters seem to like the system, changing it would
be difficult. Even if Mr Melancon and Ms Mount win, the faster-growing
areas of the state--the newer suburbs around Baton Rouge and New
Orleans--are Republican strongholds. It will take more than clever ads
or party discipline to keep Louisiana Democratic.

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