[Mb-civic] Bush Adm risksozone layer destruction & economic armageddon

[ean at sbcglobal.net]

all the uplifting (not!) news that wasn't seen fit to print.....

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BUSHGREENWATCH
Tracking the Bush Administration's Environmental Misdeeds
http://www.bushgreenwatch.org
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November 24, 2004

U.S. AGAIN SEEKING DELAY IN PROTECTING OZONE LAYER 

The U.S. is foremost among 16 nations seeking an exemption from
guidelines set in the 1987 Montreal Protocol for the phase-out
of methyl bromide, a potent ozone-depleting chemical used for
agricultural purposes. 

The U.S. previously agreed to ban methyl bromide by next
January. Instead it is expected to push for a multi-year
exemption to the phase-out as the signatories to the Montreal
Protocol gather in Prague this week. 

The U.S. is requesting permission to use 9,379 metric tons of
the neurotoxin in 2006. That comprises over 75% of the
exemptions being sought, with the 15 other countries requesting
approximately 2,700 tons in combination. 

BushGreenwatch reported in February on the request of the Bush
Administration to increase methyl bromide production, rather
than continuing to reduce it -- a move that prompted an
unprecedented special meeting of the treaty parties in March of
this year.[1] 

At that time the U.S. was granted a one-year exemption with a
freeze on production at current levels and an allowance of
almost 9,000 metric tons for 2005. This number was almost twice
the total allowance for the 11 other nations also granted
exemptions at the time. [2] 

David Doniger, policy director at Natural Resources Defense
Council's Climate Center (NRDC), says that by pushing for major
exemptions to the Montreal Protocol, the Bush Administration is
"risking a catastrophic breakdown of the global ozone treaty,
endangering the health of millions of Americans, and exposing
American businesses to as much as $10 billion per year in trade
sanctions."[3] "What's at stake here," says Doniger, "is whether
the U.S. is going back on its commitments to protect the ozone
layer under the Montreal Protocol." [4] 

Exemptions are allowed under the protocol when a technical or
economically viable alternative does not exist. But the use of
methyl bromide has serious implications in addition to
ozone-depletion. 

Originally developed during World War II as a nerve gas, it also
causes reproductive problems, and exposure to it has been linked
to an increased risk of prostate cancer among pesticide
applicators and farm workers. 

### 

SOURCES: 
[1] BushGreenwatch, Feb. 23, 2004,
http://ga3.org/ct/V71g7oM1WBCE/.
[2] "Methyl bromide exemptions to be decided next week,"
Greenwire, Nov. 18, 2004. 
[3] Letter from David D. Doniger to Hon. Michael O. Leavitt,
Administrator, Environmental Protection Agency. 
[4] Greenwire, op. cit.

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http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356
Economic ‘Armageddon’ Predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking 
giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being 
bearish. But you should hear what he's saying in private. 

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last 
week, including a group at Fidelity. His prediction: America has 
no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic 
"Armageddon." 

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has 
obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who 
was at one meeting said, "it struck me how extreme he was - 
much more, it seemed to me, than in public." 

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 
percent chance that "we'll muddle through for a while and 
delay the eventual Armageddon." The chance we'll get through 
OK: one in 10. Maybe. 

In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade 
deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners 
buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal 
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise 
interest rates further and faster than he wants. 

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their 
eyeballs, will get pounded. Less a case of "Armageddon," 
maybe, than of a "Perfect Storm." 

Roach marshaled alarming facts to support his argument. To 
finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he 
said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash — every 
working day. That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire 
world's net savings. 

Sustainable? Hardly. 

Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels. 
Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal 
to half the size of the economy. Today the figure is 85 percent. 
Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest 
rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes. 

Americans are already spending a record share of disposable 
income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't 
even risen much yet. You don't have to ask a Wall Street 
economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their 
credit cards this Christmas. 

Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it 
extra force. The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies 
from the yen to the euro. Its parachute failed to open over the 
weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers 
produced no promise of concerted intervention. 

It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, 
analysts agree. The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the 
dollar, and interest rates, on Friday. 

Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source 
who heard the presentation concluded that a "spectacular wave 
of bankruptcies" is possible. 

Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is 
undeniable that America is living in a "debt bubble" of record 
proportions. But they argue there may be an alternative 
scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately 
allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at 
the value of today's consumer debts in real terms. 

Inflation of 7 percent a year halves "real" values in a decade. It 
may be the only way out of the trap. Higher interest rates, or 
higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term 
lenders at fixed interest rates. You wouldn't want to hold 30-
year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent.
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to 
those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research 
                      and educational purposes.




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