[Mb-civic] NYTimes.com Article: Op-Ed Columnist: The Bush Revolution

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Op-Ed Columnist: The Bush Revolution

November 17, 2004
 By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF 



 

Having crushed the resistance in Falluja, President Bush is
now trying to do the same at the State Department and the
C.I.A. 

Colin Powell may have "resigned," but don't kid yourself -
the White House didn't want him. Mr. Powell's own statement
said that he and Mr. Bush "came to the mutual agreement
that it would be appropriate for me to leave at this time."


The real winner in this foreign policy wrestling match is
Dick Cheney. One of his former aides, Stephen Hadley, will
now be the national security adviser, and Condoleezza Rice
was run over so many times by Mr. Cheney in the first term
that she'll be docile at State. 

In a conversation with the British foreign secretary, Jack
Straw, Mr. Powell once referred in frustration to Mr.
Cheney, Don Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz as "[expletive]
crazies," according to a recent British biography of Tony
Blair. Mr. Powell had a point, but they're getting the last
laugh. 

The central question of President Bush's second term is
this: Will he shaft his Christian-right supporters, since
he doesn't need them any more, and try to secure his legacy
with moderate policies that might unite the country? Or,
with no re-election to worry about, will he pursue
revolutionary changes on the right? To me, it looks
increasingly like the latter. 

Many liberals are still enraged at Mr. Powell for
misleading the world about Iraqi W.M.D. in his U.N. speech.
Fair enough. But wait six months, and they'll fervently
wish they had him back. The reality is that Mr. Powell was
a voice of reason in foreign policy discussions ranging
from Pakistan to Venezuela. Without him, foreign relations
would have been even more catastrophic. 

On North Korea, Iraq and Europe, Mr. Powell was like the
man in the circus who follows the elephants, cleaning up
their messes. Yet his even more useful role in the
administration was not sensible diplomacy. It was his
willingness to disagree, to offer another viewpoint. He
pushed back. 

Condoleezza Rice is smart, diligent and honest, but she has
zero record of pushing back. And that's what Mr. Bush needs
- somebody besides Laura who will tell him when he's about
to do something stupid. 

He needs lots of those somebodies in the intelligence
community, whose crucial role is not so much to steal
secrets abroad but to resist political pressures at home
and offer unwelcome analyses. That will be much less likely
now that heads are rolling down the corridors of the
C.I.A.'s directorate of operations. 

It's fair to replace Mr. Powell, a political appointee, but
the spies being pushed out at Langley are career
professionals. The intelligence community's best assets
aren't those spying for us in foreign capitals, but the
thousands of Americans at the C.I.A., the D.I.A., the
N.S.A. and the rest of the alphabet soup of spookdom. Their
morale - already bad - will suffer a further dive, along
with their effectiveness. 

So what should we expect in a second term? 

A squeeze on
North Korea The hawks have been impatient with what they
see as the coddling of North Korea, and unless there is
progress soon, there will be a push to get tougher and
apply sanctions. 

A continued embrace of Ariel Sharon With Mr. Powell out,
there will be no one in the administration pushing Mr. Bush
toward a more balanced policy. Tony Blair will try, but
he's too far away. 

A collision with Iran When Iran's new agreement with Europe
on curbing its nuclear programs falls apart, the U.S. will
resume its push for regime change in Iran (ironically,
pushing for regime change in Iran and Cuba is what keeps
those regimes in power). Then the U.S. will discuss whether
to look the other way as Israel launches airstrikes on
Iranian nuclear sites. 

Dithering on Darfur Mr. Powell traveled to Darfur,
proclaimed the slaughter there to be genocide and quietly
pushed within the administration to get some action. I wish
he had done much more, but, by contrast, the White House
has been lackadaisical. 

A litmus test of foreign policy prospects will be whether
John Bolton, a genial raptor among the doves at State, is
promoted to be its deputy secretary. For liberals who have
been wavering on whether to move to New Zealand, that would
be a sign to head for the airport. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/17/opinion/17kris.html?ex=1101705030&ei=1&en=42a4c9d0870e907b


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