[Mb-civic] Winning in Fallujah, losing elsewhere? Economist

Wed Nov 10 14:53:10 PST 2004

Winning in Fallujah, losing elsewhere?

Nov 10th 2004 
>From The Economist Global Agenda

American and Iraqi forces are continuing to fight insurgents,
street-by-street, for control of Fallujah. A sharp rise in violence
elsewhere in Iraq suggests that even if they capture the city from the
rebels, it may not quell the insurgency. Indeed, the operation risks further
inflaming the country¹s Sunni minority

EPA

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THE assault by thousands of American and Iraqi troops on the rebel-held city
of Fallujah went into a third day on Wednesday November 10th, with the
fighting having reached the central Jolan district, suspected of being the
focus of insurgents' activity. The interim Iraqi government insisted that
the controversial military operation would continue despite the kidnap, the
evening before, of a cousin of the prime minister, Iyad Allawi, and the
cousin's wife and daughter-in-law. The Islamist group that snatched them is
threatening to kill them unless the Fallujah operation is called off.

 Before the assault, the American military reckoned that thousands of
insurgents were hiding out in Fallujah, which is about 50km west of Baghdad,
in the heartlands of Iraq¹s Sunni Muslim minority. Among them, it was
believed, were foreign Islamist militants loyal to a Jordanian terrorist,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who has declared allegiance to al-Qaeda and has
beheaded several foreign hostages. However, there have been reports that a
large number of rebels fled Fallujah shortly before the attack and regrouped
in other nearby Sunni towns, such as Ramadi, where there has been an upsurge
in clashes between insurgents and American forces.

 The current operation to retake Fallujah is the second this year. In April,
an assault was launched against the rebels holed up in the city, after they
murdered and mutilated four American ex-soldiers. But the heavy civilian
casualties caused an outcry both within and without Iraq, forcing the
American-led coalition to abandon the city to the rebels.

 Since then, the coalition has handed over sovereignty to an interim Iraqi
government, led by Mr Allawi, a secular politician from the country¹s Shia
Muslim majority. In recent weeks, as talks with civic leaders in Fallujah
continued without result, Mr Allawi repeatedly warned that unless they
handed over the rebel leaders soon, another all-out assault on the city
would be inevitable.

However, there have been signs of splits within the interim government.
Among others, the president, Ghazi al-Yawar‹a sheikh from a predominantly
Sunni Arab tribe‹has expressed his opposition to an attack and called for
talks to continue. Attacking Fallujah¹s insurgents is like shooting at a fly
that has landed on your horse¹s head, says Mr Yawar: you will miss the fly
but kill your horse. One of the main Sunni groups, the Iraqi Islamic Party,
said on Tuesday it was quitting the government, though its representative in
the cabinet, Hajem al-Hassani, told Reuters news agency that he would stay
in the government and quit his party.

 The recapture of Fallujah is intended to restore order to Sunni Muslim
areas so they can take part in elections due to be held in January. But the
United Nations¹ secretary-general, Kofi Annan, has written to Mr Allawi,
President George Bush and the British prime minister, Tony Blair, arguing
that the attack could trigger an all-out boycott of the election by Sunnis,
and therefore undermine its legitimacy. Mr Annan is reported to have said in
his letters that: ³The threat or actual use of force not only risks
deepening the sense of alienation of certain communities, but would also
reinforce perceptions among the Iraqi population of a continued military
occupation.²

The Fallujah assault followed a weekend of extreme violence around the
country, including the deaths of 34 people, mostly Iraqi policemen, in a
series of co-ordinated bombings in Samarra, north of Baghdad. Only a month
ago, Samarra was stormed by American and Iraqi forces in an operation
similar to that now taking place in Fallujah. The bombings seemed to be a
message from the insurgents that their campaign will continue unabated even
if Fallujah is now recaptured.

 Over the weekend, Mr Allawi declared a 60-day state of emergency in all
parts of Iraq except the relatively tranquil Kurdish-majority north. This
gives his government extra powers to impose curfews (they have been declared
in Baghdad, Samarra, Fallujah and Ramadi) and to detain suspects. Baghdad¹s
international airport has been temporarily closed, as have some of Iraq¹s
borders.

 Many of the foreign fighters are believed to have entered Iraq from Syria,
whose government has been under pressure from Iraq and America to seal its
frontiers. On Sunday, the Syrian foreign minister, Farouq al-Shara, said an
agreement on border co-operation had been reached with Iraq, and journalists
were shown fortifications that Syria is building along the frontier.
However, there are worries that insurgents and supplies are also coming in
across the border from Iran, whose Shia Muslim theocracy is suspected by the
Americans of meddling in Iraq¹s conflict.

 The leaders of the Sunni minority‹about a fifth of the Iraqi population‹are
already divided over whether to take part in January's elections. If all or
most of them decide to boycott it, and at the same time heavy civilian
casualties in Fallujah trigger an intensification of attacks across the
country, the election may not only be near-impossible to stage, it may fail
in its objective of giving Iraq a credible and representative power-sharing
government. Even if Fallujah is taken quickly and with relatively little
civilian suffering, the recent proliferation in attacks suggests that there
will still be some way to go before the insurgency is brought under control.