[Mb-civic] What Bush win will mean for America

[Barbara Siomos]

  What a Bush Win Will Mean for America
  By Mark Tran
  The Guardian U.K.
  Wednesday 03 November 2004

A second term in the White House for Bush could have far reaching
effects not only on the economy, but on the social fabric of the
country, says Mark Tran.

  As he heads for another four years in the White House - barring a
shock in Ohio - George Bush will have the chance to tilt the supreme
court firmly to the right and leave a lasting imprint on the US's social
and political fabric.

  Three of the nine supreme court justices could well step down in
the next few years. Chief justice William Rehnquist, an 80-year-old
Nixon appointee, who was hospitalised last week following complications
arising from thyroid cancer, is surely looking at retirement. Justices
John Paul Stevens, 84, and Sandra Day O'Connor, 74, have also indicated
an interest in stepping down.

  Unlike presidents, supreme court justices are not hobbled by term
limits and can stay on for decades. The president who appoints them is
therefore presented with an opportunity to mould the powerful body
according to his political tastes - with the caveat that such judges can
often confound expectations.

  We can expect big battles in Congress as Democrats seek to block
Mr Bush from packing the court with conservative judges. The president
has made it clear what kind of judges he wants in the court, holding up
as models two of the court's most conservative members, Antonin Scalia
and Clarence Thomas.

  In the coming years, the supreme court is expected to consider
some of the most divisive social issues in the US: private property
rights and government land seizure, gay marriage and partial-birth
abortion.

   The importance of the court cannot be underestimated. It was the
supreme court that segregated American schools and then reversed the
judgment. It was the supreme court that made the famous Roe v Wade
ruling that confirmed a woman's right to an abortion. The amendment has
long been a bugbear for the religious right, which may well seek to
overturn the ruling once Mr Bush has made his appointments.

   On the economic front, the White House has been building up
problems that will have to be tackled sooner or later. In his first
term, the Bush administration engineered what an International Monetary
Fund economist termed as the "best recovery that money can buy".

  That recovery rested on huge tax cuts and massive government -
especially military - spending. The result has been enormous US budget
and trade deficits that the IMF believe to be unsustainable. Unless Mr
Bush starts to soak up the pool of red ink, interest rates will have to
rise as a corrective measure, which could push the US into recession.

  To tame the US deficit, Mr Bush may well have to make a u-turn and
raise taxes - as his father, despite his "read my lips, no new taxes"
pledge, did before him. Perhaps the only consolation for Kerry
supporters is that Mr Bush will now have to take some unpalatable
measures to correct the massive economic imbalances that have developed
under his first term.
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  Mark Tran reported for the Guardian from the US from 1984 to 1989.
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