[Mb-civic] Compromise in Kiev, confrontation abroad

Wed Dec 8 17:41:19 PST 2004

Compromise in Kiev, confrontation abroad

Dec 8th 2004 
>From The Economist Global Agenda

Ukraine¹s parliament has passed a package of constitutional amendments that
pave the way for a re-run of the country¹s fraudulent presidential election
on December 26th. But as tensions over the disputed poll ease somewhat in
Kiev, they are growing between Russia and the West

Reuters

Kuchma (right) shows how to compromise

Get article background

WHEN Ukraine¹s political crisis erupted last month, it was said to be not
only a turning point for the country itself, but also for relations between
the West and Russia, which had backed rival candidates in the contested
presidential election. Strains in those relations were apparent from the day
Russia¹s president, Vladimir Putin, congratulated Victor Yanukovich, the
pro-Moscow official candidate, on his dubious victory. This week, those
strains became noticeably more painful.

The crucible for the latest war of words was the meeting of foreign
ministers under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), held on Monday and Tuesday in Sofia. It was
always going to be a tense gathering, given that the OSCE was the body that
blew the whistle on Ukraine¹s election fraud. But there had been hope
beforehand that agreement could be reached on various issues, including the
withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova and Georgia. In the event, no deal
was done and no final communiqué issued.

Worse, recriminations flew thick and fast. Colin Powell, America¹s outgoing
secretary of state, said he was concerned about developments in Russia
affecting freedom of the press and the rule of law, and harrumphed that
America would not ratify a treaty on conventional weapons in Europe until
Russia withdrew troops from neighbouring countries. Then it was the turn of
Sergei Lavrov, Russia¹s foreign minister, who criticised the OSCE for double
standards, saying its election monitoring in Ukraine could become an
³instrument for political manipulation². Mr Lavrov blocked a resolution
supporting a fair re-run of the Ukrainian election¹s controversial second
round, in which Mr Yanukovich officially beat the opposition candidate,
Victor Yushchenko, but only thanks to widespread ballot-stuffing and other
nonsense. Meanwhile, Mr Putin took aim at American-backed plans to hold
elections in Iraq on January 30th, saying that he ³cannot imagine² how they
could be held while the country is still full of foreign troops.

On Wednesday, the NATO defence alliance postponed a meeting between its
foreign ministers and their Ukrainian counterpart‹to avoid contact with a
member of a tainted administration, Reuters reported NATO sources as saying.
A meeting between Mr Lavrov and NATO officials was expected to go ahead,
amid worries that projects in which Russia and the western alliance
co-operate, such as monitoring the Mediterranean region, could be scrapped.

Mr Putin is particularly angry at being made to look silly after throwing
his lot in with a man who looks increasingly like a fall-guy. The Russian
president had backed Mr Yanukovich in the hope of reasserting his grip on
Russia¹s ³near abroad² and preventing Ukraine from slipping into the
European Union¹s and NATO¹s orbit, which is what Mr Yushchenko wants. Under
intense pressure from the EU and America, Moscow has since wavered, at one
point withdrawing support for its man. But on Wednesday, Boris Gryzlov,
Russia¹s envoy to the talks on ending the crisis, insisted that only a
Yanukovich victory would ³allow Ukraine to remain an integral and united
country² (eastern, pro-Yanukovich regions have threatened to break away if
the presidency goes to Mr Yushchenko, whose stronghold is the nationalist
west). Mr Yanukovich has said he intends to take part in the re-run despite
calls from some on his side for a new candidate.

Better news at home

While Russia and the West fight for the soul of Ukraine, the domestic
political storm that followed the election shows signs of abating. It has
been agreed that a re-run of the second round will take place on December
26th, following a ruling last Friday by Ukraine¹s Supreme Court. The court¹s
judges declared the second round invalid and, by ruling that the new run-off
must be held within 23 days, they put paid to calls that the entire
election‹both the multi-candidate first round and the two-candidate
run-off‹be held again. A re-run of the second round only was just what Mr
Yushchenko had wanted. He had presented the court with thousands of cases of
electoral fraud that had helped Mr Yanukovich, who was backed not only by Mr
Putin but also by Ukraine¹s outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma.

Mr Kuchma had said before the Supreme Court ruling that he would accept a
fresh election but it would have to be re-done from scratch. This would have
taken months, during which time Mr Kuchma would have stayed in power. Having
lost that battle, he then said he would only accept changes to the electoral
laws, along lines set out by Mr Yushchenko, if the opposition leader in turn
agreed to constitutional reforms that would water down the powers of the
president. The opposition griped that these were designed to ensure that Mr
Yushchenko, the likely winner of a free and fair re-run, would inherit an
enfeebled presidency.

A compromise was finally reached on Wednesday. The parliament passed a
package that includes electoral-law reforms to cut fraud and the replacement
of the election commission, as requested by Mr Yushchenko; and changes that
strip the president of some powers (such as the right to appoint certain
ministers) while increasing those of the prime minister and the parliament,
as proposed by Mr Kuchma. The regions were also given new powers, in the
hope of easing tensions between the east and west of the country. Mr Kuchma
immediately signed the bill into law, and the opposition lifted its blockade
of government buildings.

Until this week, Ukraine had appeared to be heading to the brink of civil
war and financial ruin. There have been constant fears of a bloody
confrontation between the hundreds of thousands of opposition supporters and
the Ukrainian (and perhaps even Russian) security forces‹though so far there
has been remarkably little violence. And, with many people rushing to take
their money out of banks, the authorities have had to impose restrictions on
withdrawals to avert a collapse of the financial system.

Mr Yushchenko¹s supporters are tantalisingly close to achieving their dream
of repeating last year¹s ³rose revolution² in Georgia, whose then president,
Edward Shevardnadze, resigned amid huge but peaceful protests following
dodgy parliamentary elections. In the ensuing vote for a new president, the
country¹s pro-western opposition leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, emerged
victorious. If Ukraine also goes west, so to speak, it may trigger similar
movements in those remaining bits of the ³near abroad² that still cleave to
Moscow, such as Belarus.