[Mb-civic] NYTimes.com Article: U.S. Voters Show Concern Over Security and Foreign Affairs

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U.S. Voters Show Concern Over Security and Foreign Affairs

August 19, 2004
 By BRIAN KNOWLTON, 
International Herald Tribune 



 

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 - For the first time in decades,
foreign affairs and national security issues have emerged
in the American presidential campaign as greater concerns
among voters than economic matters, according to a new
survey. 

The survey released Wednesday by the independent Pew
Research Center, found that 4 in 10 Americans now cite
international and defense issues as the most important
problems confronting the country. Only 1 in 4 mentioned
economic concerns. 

Not since 1972, during the Vietnam War, have security
concerns and foreign affairs issues dominated at this point
in a campaign, the survey's authors said. The survey
suggests that views on Iraq and the administration's
success or failure in overcoming violent opposition there
could decisively influence the race between President Bush
and Senator John Kerry, according to the Pew director,
Andrew Kohut. 

This could make Iraq a "tipping point" or a "trump card" in
the coming campaign, he said. 

The study found that Americans' views on Iraq and other
foreign policy issues have diverged to an unusual level,
reaffirming the notion that on those issues the candidates
will have to fight for support among small numbers of
undecided voters. 

For example, Republican support for the Bush doctrine that
pre-emptive war can be justified against potential enemies
has grown (to 88 percent from 79 percent last year) while
Democratic support for it has fallen (to 44 percent from 58
percent). 

Nearly the same number of Americans said they favored a
"cautious" foreign policy as a "decisive" one. 

"The debate about whether it is better to be loved or
feared is shaping up as a major issue," said Lee Feinstein,
a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, which
collaborated on the Pew study. 

The Pew Center, relying in part on data from past Gallup
polls, said that security and foreign affairs issues
dominated all campaigns from 1948 to 1972. But beginning in
1976, a year after the fall of Saigon, economic issues took
over. That trend peaked in 1992, when Clinton campaign
aides were instructed, "It's the economy, stupid." Voters
that year cited economic concerns 18 times as often as
foreign and security matters. 

The poll was conducted by phone from July 8 to July 18
among 2,009 Americans. Smaller samplings followed early
this month. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.5
percentage points. 

The lessons of the survey offer each camp some
encouragement, said Walter Mead of the Council on Foreign
Relations. 

While Americans give Mr. Bush higher marks on the campaign
against terror, and 9 in 10 say that protecting the United
States from terrorist attack is a top priority, "Kerry has
a lead when you ask which is better on foreign policy," Mr.
Mead said. 

Pew and other polls give Mr. Kerry an advantage on the
economy. But on the question of who would do a better job
of handling Iraq, the two candidates are tied, the Pew poll
found. 

If the troubles in Iraq have fueled a rising preoccupation
with foreign affairs, recent economic improvement could
explain the relative decline in concerns on that front. 

Mr. Kerry has repeatedly criticized Mr. Bush, saying the
president has lost millions of jobs, and has said that he
would do better. But Mr. Bush has pointed to the creation
of hundreds of thousands of jobs and has said more are
coming. 

The threat of terror continues to deeply mold public
attitudes on the use of force and the extent of homeland
protection measures. While 3 in 10 Americans said that the
federal government had gone too far in restricting civil
liberties as part of moves meant to fight terrorism, 5 in
10 expressed concern that it had not done enough to protect
the country. 

"There are a lot of places in the poll where you can see
that the shock of Sept. 11 is just a central concern for
the American public," Mr. Mead said. 

One of those appeared to be the belief, held by 43 percent,
that torture could sometimes be justified by circumstances,
a number that is notable considering the prison abuse
scandal in Iraq. 

Carroll Doherty of the Pew Center said that the public
clearly wanted both stronger relations with allies, as Mr.
Kerry has promised, and tougher measures against terror, a
notion more associated in the public mind with Mr. Bush. 

"The public doesn't see any contradiction there," he said.
"They want both." 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/19/politics/campaign/19poll.html?ex=1093938620&ei=1&en=33cc6d52a53763aa


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