[Mb-civic] NYTimes.com Article: The Nuclear Shadow

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The Nuclear Shadow

August 14, 2004
 By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF 



 

If a 10-kiloton terrorist nuclear weapon explodes beside
the New York Stock Exchange or the U.S. Capitol, or in
Times Square, as many nuclear experts believe is likely in
the next decade, then the next 9/11 commission will write a
devastating critique of how we allowed that to happen. 

As I wrote in my last column, there is a general conviction
among many experts - though, in fairness, not all - that
nuclear terrorism has a better-than-even chance of
occurring in the next 10 years. Such an attack could kill
500,000 people. 

Yet U.S. politicians have utterly failed to face up to the
danger. 

"Both Bush administration rhetoric and Kerry rhetoric
emphasize keeping W.M.D. out of the hands of terrorists as
a No. 1 national security priority," noted Michèlle
Flournoy of the Center for Strategic and International
Studies. "And when you look at what could have been done in
the last few years, versus what has been done, there's a
real gap." 

So what should we be doing? First, it's paramount that we
secure uranium and plutonium around the world. That's the
idea behind the U.S.-Russian joint program to secure 600
metric tons of Russian nuclear materials. But after 12
years, only 135 tons have been given comprehensive
upgrades. Some 340 tons haven't even been touched. 

The Nunn-Lugar program to safeguard the material is one of
the best schemes we have to protect ourselves, and it's
bipartisan, championed above all by Senator Richard Lugar,
an Indiana Republican. Yet President Bush has, incredibly,
at various times even proposed cutting funds for it. He
seems bored by this security effort, perhaps because it
doesn't involve blowing anything up. 

Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment sees the effort
against nuclear terrorism as having three components. One
is the Pentagon's version of counterproliferation, which
includes the war in Iraq and the missile defense system;
this component is costing $108 billion a year, mostly
because of Iraq. Then there's homeland security, costing
about $37 billion a year. Finally, there's nonproliferation
itself, like the Nunn-Lugar effort - and this struggles
along on just $2 billion a year. 

A second step we must take is stopping other countries from
joining the nuclear club, although, frankly, it may now be
too late. North Korea, Iran and (perhaps to a lesser
extent) Brazil all seem determined to go ahead with nuclear
programs. 

Dennis Ross, the former Middle East peace negotiator, notes
that if Iran develops nukes, jittery Saudi Arabia will seek
to follow, and then Egypt, which prides itself as the
leader of the Arab world. Likewise, anxiety about North
Korea is already starting to topple one domino - Japan is
moving in the direction of a nuclear capability. 

The best hope for stopping Iran and North Korea (and it's a
bleak one) is to negotiate a grand bargain in which they
give up nuclear aspirations for trade benefits. Mr. Bush's
current policy - fist-shaking - feels good but accomplishes
nothing. 

President Clinton's approach to North Korea wasn't a great
success, but at least North Korea didn't add to its nuclear
arsenal during his watch. In just the last two years, North
Korea appears to have gone to eight nuclear weapons from
about two. 

A third step is to prevent the smuggling of nuclear weapons
into the U.S. Mr. Bush has made a nice start on that with
his proliferation security initiative. 

A useful addition, pushed by Senator Charles Schumer, would
be to develop powerful new radiation detectors and put them
on the cranes that lift shipping containers onto American
soil. But while Congress approved $35 million to begin the
development of these detectors, the administration has
spent little or none of it. 

Finally, Mr. Bush needs to display moral clarity about
nuclear weapons, making them a focus of international
opprobrium. Unfortunately, Mr. Bush is pursuing a new
generation of nuclear bunker-buster bombs. That approach
helps make nukes thinkable, and even a coveted status
symbol, and makes us more vulnerable. 

At other periods when the U.S. has been under threat, we
mustered extraordinary resources to protect ourselves. If
Mr. Bush focused on nuclear proliferation with the
intensity he focuses on Iraq, then we might secure our
world for just a bit longer. 

Right now, we're only whistling in the dark.


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/14/opinion/14kristof.html?ex=1093510261&ei=1&en=918e0bf087e275b8


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