[Mb-civic] EDITORIAL Dilemmas of the New Iraq LATimes

[Michael Butler]

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-iraq12aug12.story

EDITORIAL

Dilemmas of the New Iraq

 August 12, 2004

 Increased fighting in Iraq again poses fundamental questions for the U.S.
military and the Iraqi interim government on how to deal with rebels. U.S.
commanders talk of "finishing the fight" against the insurgents. It would be
good if that rhetoric scared the gunmen into surrender, but if not, it's
time to try negotiations again. One measure being hinted at, a U.S. assault
on the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf, would be a catastrophe.

 The interim government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi faces challenges both
from Sunni Muslims who supported Saddam Hussein and from Shiite Muslims whom
Hussein persecuted. The current unrest is spearheaded by Muqtada Sadr, the
30-ish son of an especially respected Shiite cleric who was slain by Hussein
in 1999. Sadr heads the Al Mahdi militia, made up of hundreds, if not
thousands, of young, poor slum dwellers happy to have a cause like attacking
U.S. troops and any Iraqi they can label a U.S. puppet ‹ such as Allawi.
Disputes over how tough to be with the rebels are causing a split in the
Allawi government, which took political control of the country June 28 but
still relies on U.S. troops to keep it in power.

 Sadr's militia controls much of the Sadr City slum in Baghdad and is
battling British forces in Basra in the south, besides fighting U.S. and
Iraqi forces in Najaf. The cleric's ultimate goal is unclear. He has said he
will not discuss Iraq's political future until U.S. troops leave the
country; he has urged his followers to fight on "even if you see me as a
prisoner or a martyr." But many of his followers have been killed in the
recent fighting, which ended a cease-fire reached between U.S. troops and
Sadr's fighters in the spring.

 It is especially troubling that Sadr has gained support from some Iraqi
officials. The deputy governor of Basra province doubles as the cleric's
representative and claims that governors of three southern provinces want
autonomy from the central government. Shiites account for more than half of
Iraq's population, with a large concentration in the south. But more
autonomy for the south would encourage Kurds in the north to seek greater
freedom from central rule, possibly leading to an all-out civil war with
U.S. troops stuck in the middle.

 The Iraqi national guard's refusal to stand and fight during the spring
siege of Fallouja and complaints about its performance since are evidence
that it is not ready to take on the Mahdi militia even if a unified Allawi
government were to order it to do so.

 Destruction of the shrine could unleash violent public rage. But if U.S.
forces can lead the national guard and Iraqi police in pacifying Najaf
outside the area around the Imam Ali shrine (and its currently misnamed
Valley of Peace cemetery), they may be able to isolate Sadr's followers, cut
off their supplies and force their eventual surrender. Failing that, Allawi
will have to, from a position of weakness, somehow persuade his fellow (but
far more radical) Shiites to lay down arms and seek a peaceful role in
politics. The only carrot may be immunity from prosecution.


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